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That was my first thought but, crucially, the bankruptcy administrator is not holding a pile of yen. If he were merely holding a pile of yen, this is a pretty
by patio11 10y ago
That was my first thought but, crucially, the bankruptcy administrator is not holding a pile of yen. If he were merely holding a pile of yen, this is a pretty boring deal, and you'd be right -- it's a straightforward swap of liquid cash for illiquid cash with an embedded premium for legal risk.
But the bankrupt entity holds 200k odd Bitcoins, and that changes things a lot. I wouldn't make this trade even at an 85% discount to face value, because I think there's a significant likelihood that BTC goes to zero, and so would not buy it and especially would not buy it with embedded leverage.
- herendin2 10y agoI assume you mean that you think there's a significant likelihood that BTC goes to zero before the BTC are returned to the creditors, right?
- patio11 10y agoSubtly different: I think there exists a likelihood that BTC goes to zero before the BTC are sold. (BTC will not be returned to creditors directly, I predict with a fairly high degree of confidence. They'll be sold as a block; Kraken might be separately engaged to transfer money to foreign creditors who might take their transfers in BTC.)