While I'm a novice in this area, you may want to look into Markov Chains. It only looks at the last state before making a decision but you can determine how big

While I'm a novice in this area, you may want to look into Markov Chains. It only looks at the last state before making a decision but you can determine how big your state is. You could have 3 plays be a single state and go after which three plays come after, for example.