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I keep thinking China could take the opportunity here to open up its own political system and really start competing against the US as a desired landing spot fo

by daxfohl 10y ago

I keep thinking China could take the opportunity here to open up its own political system and really start competing against the US as a desired landing spot for US/EU tech/science grads, and other capable/interested young talent. In a play for "world dominance", this could be a prudent non-military move. It would force The West to reconsider the direction it's heading too.

richmarr 10y ago
I don't think they'd want to make significant changes to their political system. The Chinese middle class is already larger than the US middle class (and growing), so they're already going to be the culturally dominant force over the next century. Edit: "they" above being those in power. Obvs there are people in China who want reform.
- BurningFrog 10y ago
  A reasonably wealthy middle class will take power. Because money is power, and they have most of it. At least that is one way you can view the democratization of the west. The same mechanism - if real - should apply in China as well.
  - gbog 10y ago
    Depends on what you mean by democratization. If you mean the main part of the country's citizen have the most leverage on country's general guidance by simple weight effect, then yes, and it is probably already the case for China. If you mean "representative political system with elections as done in some Western countries" then maybe this political system should be fixed before asking other people to try it.
    - BurningFrog 10y ago
      Yeah, I didn't mean to say China would democratize. Rereading, I see how it can be read that way.
  - richmarr 10y ago
    > The same mechanism - if real - should apply in China as well. Yeah, I think it's realistic to expect growing wealth to affect the political landscape. I guess my point is that self-imposed political reform is a choice few governments make willingly. OP was suggesting that the soon-to-be dominant world power would choose self-imposed political reform with the specific objective of attracting more overseas students. To me that seems like choosing to cut off your arm rather than trim your fingernails.
del82 10y ago
I agree, but it would take more than political reform to make China an attractive landing spot. Pollution and food safety are also big problems, for example, to the extent that my spouse (who is Chinese) and I have discussed and rejected the idea of raising our children in China, independent of qualms about the political system.
- daxfohl 10y ago
  Yeah, mine is Malaysian Chinese and we've discussed the same things WRT going there (Singapore notwithstanding). However China has to start somewhere. If they go all in on renewable energy along with their political changes, then that has the potential to make it an even more attractive landing spot, due both to increased quality of life and to interesting new job opportunities in that field. (This is actually the outcome I'm hoping for, as I'm seeing global warming as the largest threat to humanity right now, and a large-scale challenge to big oil from China is the only thing that'd work before it's too late. The only politically viable way that's going to happen is if it helps win some other zero-sum game such as the competition for worldwide talent. If it works out that way, then it would eventually force the US to reconsider its oil alliances too and maybe we'd all be okay. This is all just somewhat stream-of-consciousness though.)
- gbog 10y ago
  Food issues is the very reason for me to raise my kids in China. They learn to use chopsticks before forks and knives. They eat rice daily and have no desert. I sometime had to literally tell my daughter: "if you do not eat this chocolate cake, I'll not give you more bone soup". There is a very big food problem... in the US. Also, there is a very annoying problem with people of other colors in the West. I do not want to have to tell my kids to be afraid of "some people" when I take the subway, but I also do not want them to be unsafe. This is another reason to avoid the West for raising kids. (Just one last: in Japan, parents are NOT allowed to take their kids to school, kids have to go by themselves. In the West this would be considered irresponsible. I want my kids to be happy, free and safe.)
  - ced 10y ago
    That's interesting. Would you mind going into specifics? Are you American? How long have you been there, and what are the main challenges? I see you're in Beijing. I lived in Kunming, and it did seem like a pretty appropriate place for having a family. Are you concerned about the pollution levels? What kind of school do you send your kids to, if any?
intended 10y ago
I think You have it the wrong way around - CHina will tell the west how to organize itself, and many people are going to find it hard to argue, especially when the crop of leaders in the west become more unpredictable, less inclined to follow science or systems. the political and citizen class are currently sufficiently satisfied with their arrangement, that they will do what they can to maintain the system.
deleted 10y ago
[deleted]
emodendroket 10y ago
> China could take the opportunity here to open up its own political system Not going to happen unless the current leaders somehow end up deposed.
yorwba 10y ago
Note that China's attitude towards foreigners is currently in a state where even opening up the job market to recent graduates without work experience (if they have good grades) is big news: http://www.ecns.cn/2017/01-15/241676.shtml http://www.ecns.cn/2017/01-15/241676.shtml AFAIK, previously only "specialists" were granted an employment license.
- daxfohl 10y ago
  Yeah, I was thinking about that. Given overpopulation is still a problem there, and given their surfeit of home-grown tech grads, recruiting young talent may not be much of a priority. Still, I think it has to be eventually if they want to be considered world leaders.
kitschshrine 10y ago
Highly doubtful on both points. As for open up political system - Xi Jinping is consolidating his power to be the dictator of China. He is removing rivals using routing out corruption as excuse (and not targeting his own supporters) - China's economy is crashing. It's approaching 300% debt ratio in combined corporate + government + individual. Its gross reserve is down to less than 3T (IMF believes China needs at least 2.7T to operate). Its net reserve (gross - debt) is down to 1.7T. It had a capital outflow of 700B in 2016. Yuan fell the most in 2016, since 1994. It is now trying to close up the internal system via capital control, rights restrictions, censorship, etc as for desired spot for foreigners - Poisonous air - "pollution levels hovering over 12 times the level recommended by the World Health Organization" http://theweek.com/articles/672007/filth-breathe-china http://theweek.com/articles/672007/filth-breathe-china - Poisonous food: "Fake Chinese seasoning ring, operating for 10 years using cancerous industrial ingredients" http://shanghaiist.com/2017/01/17/fake_seasoning_factories.php http://shanghaiist.com/2017/01/17/fake_seasoning_factories.p... - Dirty water: "Shanghai water supply hit by 100-tonne wave of garbage" https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/23/shanghai-water-supply-hit-by-100-tonne-wave-of-garbage https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/23/shanghai-water... - censorship, bad access to world internet, corruption, zenophobia/racism, bad manners/behaviors from locals, no weed - China only has 600,000 foreigners registered living in there in 2016. Half of those are from Taiwan/Hong Kong. Super small number for a country of 1.3B.

by daxfohl 10y ago

richmarr 10y ago

I don't think they'd want to make significant changes to their political system. The Chinese middle class is already larger than the US middle class (and growing), so they're already going to be the culturally dominant force over the next century. Edit: "they" above being those in power. Obvs there are people in China who want reform.

BurningFrog 10y ago
A reasonably wealthy middle class will take power. Because money is power, and they have most of it. At least that is one way you can view the democratization of the west. The same mechanism - if real - should apply in China as well.
- gbog 10y ago
  Depends on what you mean by democratization. If you mean the main part of the country's citizen have the most leverage on country's general guidance by simple weight effect, then yes, and it is probably already the case for China. If you mean "representative political system with elections as done in some Western countries" then maybe this political system should be fixed before asking other people to try it.
  - BurningFrog 10y ago
    Yeah, I didn't mean to say China would democratize. Rereading, I see how it can be read that way.
- richmarr 10y ago
  > The same mechanism - if real - should apply in China as well. Yeah, I think it's realistic to expect growing wealth to affect the political landscape. I guess my point is that self-imposed political reform is a choice few governments make willingly. OP was suggesting that the soon-to-be dominant world power would choose self-imposed political reform with the specific objective of attracting more overseas students. To me that seems like choosing to cut off your arm rather than trim your fingernails.

del82 10y ago

I agree, but it would take more than political reform to make China an attractive landing spot. Pollution and food safety are also big problems, for example, to the extent that my spouse (who is Chinese) and I have discussed and rejected the idea of raising our children in China, independent of qualms about the political system.

daxfohl 10y ago
Yeah, mine is Malaysian Chinese and we've discussed the same things WRT going there (Singapore notwithstanding). However China has to start somewhere. If they go all in on renewable energy along with their political changes, then that has the potential to make it an even more attractive landing spot, due both to increased quality of life and to interesting new job opportunities in that field. (This is actually the outcome I'm hoping for, as I'm seeing global warming as the largest threat to humanity right now, and a large-scale challenge to big oil from China is the only thing that'd work before it's too late. The only politically viable way that's going to happen is if it helps win some other zero-sum game such as the competition for worldwide talent. If it works out that way, then it would eventually force the US to reconsider its oil alliances too and maybe we'd all be okay. This is all just somewhat stream-of-consciousness though.)
gbog 10y ago
Food issues is the very reason for me to raise my kids in China. They learn to use chopsticks before forks and knives. They eat rice daily and have no desert. I sometime had to literally tell my daughter: "if you do not eat this chocolate cake, I'll not give you more bone soup". There is a very big food problem... in the US. Also, there is a very annoying problem with people of other colors in the West. I do not want to have to tell my kids to be afraid of "some people" when I take the subway, but I also do not want them to be unsafe. This is another reason to avoid the West for raising kids. (Just one last: in Japan, parents are NOT allowed to take their kids to school, kids have to go by themselves. In the West this would be considered irresponsible. I want my kids to be happy, free and safe.)
- ced 10y ago
  That's interesting. Would you mind going into specifics? Are you American? How long have you been there, and what are the main challenges? I see you're in Beijing. I lived in Kunming, and it did seem like a pretty appropriate place for having a family. Are you concerned about the pollution levels? What kind of school do you send your kids to, if any?

intended 10y ago

I think You have it the wrong way around - CHina will tell the west how to organize itself, and many people are going to find it hard to argue, especially when the crop of leaders in the west become more unpredictable, less inclined to follow science or systems. the political and citizen class are currently sufficiently satisfied with their arrangement, that they will do what they can to maintain the system.

deleted 10y ago

[deleted]

emodendroket 10y ago

> China could take the opportunity here to open up its own political system Not going to happen unless the current leaders somehow end up deposed.

yorwba 10y ago

Note that China's attitude towards foreigners is currently in a state where even opening up the job market to recent graduates without work experience (if they have good grades) is big news: http://www.ecns.cn/2017/01-15/241676.shtml http://www.ecns.cn/2017/01-15/241676.shtml AFAIK, previously only "specialists" were granted an employment license.

daxfohl 10y ago
Yeah, I was thinking about that. Given overpopulation is still a problem there, and given their surfeit of home-grown tech grads, recruiting young talent may not be much of a priority. Still, I think it has to be eventually if they want to be considered world leaders.

kitschshrine 10y ago

Highly doubtful on both points. As for open up political system - Xi Jinping is consolidating his power to be the dictator of China. He is removing rivals using routing out corruption as excuse (and not targeting his own supporters) - China's economy is crashing. It's approaching 300% debt ratio in combined corporate + government + individual. Its gross reserve is down to less than 3T (IMF believes China needs at least 2.7T to operate). Its net reserve (gross - debt) is down to 1.7T. It had a capital outflow of 700B in 2016. Yuan fell the most in 2016, since 1994. It is now trying to close up the internal system via capital control, rights restrictions, censorship, etc as for desired spot for foreigners - Poisonous air - "pollution levels hovering over 12 times the level recommended by the World Health Organization" http://theweek.com/articles/672007/filth-breathe-china http://theweek.com/articles/672007/filth-breathe-china - Poisonous food: "Fake Chinese seasoning ring, operating for 10 years using cancerous industrial ingredients" http://shanghaiist.com/2017/01/17/fake_seasoning_factories.php http://shanghaiist.com/2017/01/17/fake_seasoning_factories.p... - Dirty water: "Shanghai water supply hit by 100-tonne wave of garbage" https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/23/shanghai-water-supply-hit-by-100-tonne-wave-of-garbage https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/23/shanghai-water... - censorship, bad access to world internet, corruption, zenophobia/racism, bad manners/behaviors from locals, no weed - China only has 600,000 foreigners registered living in there in 2016. Half of those are from Taiwan/Hong Kong. Super small number for a country of 1.3B.