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Who are you calling Malthusian?
- bufordsharkley 10y agoA true Malthusian is a dangerous thing, in my opinion, insofar as they fully claim that the only way that we can all be rich is by limiting population. It's possible, at any rate, to accept most of the correlations in this article and to reach a very different conclusion: that the earth is capable of more and more population while still redistributing its proceeds. This argument was made by Henry George more than 130 years ago, and still is worth reading[0]. [0] http://www.econlib.org/library/YPDBooks/George/grgPP10.html http://www.econlib.org/library/YPDBooks/George/grgPP10.html
- plantsoftware 10y agoYou are right. If you havent read anything by Diedre McCloskey you should check her out.
- Bullingdon 10y agoAnd the argument may have appealed, 130 years ago. Since then we've quintupled our population and gained a much better understanding of carrying capacity. That capacity may be larger or smaller than our current population, but in either case, indefinite growth is not a sustainable plan — unless we know where our next planet is.
- bufordsharkley 10y agoIt's simultaneously true that infinite growth isn't feasible, and yet true that most predictions on resource depletion haven't been borne out. We can make soil more productive, find new ways of creating potable water, create energy out of seemingly nothing... Most of the suffering from limited resources have been a case of artificial scarcity owing to monopolistic control. I don't think it's unduly optimistic to agree with the mindset of "Spaceship Earth":[0] > It is a well-provisioned ship, this on which we sail through space. If the bread and beef above decks seem to grow scarce, we but open a hatch and there is a new supply, of which before we never dreamed. And very great command over the services of others comes to those who as the hatches are opened are permitted to say, "This is mine!" [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spaceship_Earth https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spaceship_Earth
- drzaiusapelord 10y ago>been a case of artificial scarcity owing to monopolistic control. Well, that sounds like an excuse. 1.6bn people are living in poverty via the Human Poverty Index (HPI) measurement, which is defined as less than earing $1.50 a day. Worse, if we raise the value to $2.50 a day, then we're talking almost half the population of Earth! Half of every living and breathing human right now is poor on a level that I can't comprehend. Oh we can add more and more excuses like bad government, 'lazy' people, people who should 'move to better jobs', etc but it doesn't make a difference. If the political and economic engines of the world can't keep almost 1/3rd of us out of poverty then its time to consider that maybe we know more about the Earth's carrying capacity today than we did 130 years ago and that you can't just wish post-scarcity into existance nor wish away the effects of human economic activity that ultimately hurts us like climate change as a "Chinese hoax." We probably can continue to add people but we'll just be making larger numbers in each category, mostly poverty and the poor. Hey, I'm doing well because poor countries tend to work for my interests but that's an accident of birth. Unfortunately, not everyone gets to be born into the life of an urban westerner.
- bufordsharkley 10y ago> Unfortunately, not everyone gets to be born into the life of an urban westerner. As a Rawlsian, I'm fixated on this very problem, but I'm drawn to solutions that work to tear down the mechanism (in short, open borders) rather than a Malthusian answer (limiting population) that I'm skeptical will do much to end poverty. Open borders, of course, don't help very much if life is unaffordable once you cross that border. And again I advise looking towards Henry George for solutions to this problem.
- stale2002 10y agoAnd 30 years ago, how was life for these 1.6 billion that were in poverty? Answer: it was much much worse. Yes, things are bad right now. But in the past things were worse. And now they are getting better, very quickly. I see no evidence that this trend won't continue.
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- stale2002 10y agoSure. And in 1 thousand years, maybe we will be at the limits of growth. We'll worry about it then.
- tomjen3 10y agoIn that case don't worry: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FACK2knC08E https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FACK2knC08E Also consider that the carrying capacity of the world isn't fixed, but depends on how good our technology is (with a potential theoretical upper limit). Well tech is improved by people working on and inventing better technology, right? So you get better technology with more people - and with that you can have more people working on better technology. The biggest mistake, and the one all Malthusians made, is to forget that humans are, on average, net produces not net consumers.
- kwhitefoot 10y agoIt rather depends on what you mean by rich.
- pdeuchler 10y agoWhile I might generally agree with your first sentence it's just as important to note that post-scarcity thinking and economics can be just as dangerous, and I say this as a very big fan of Henry George. We must always be aware and cautious of scarcity of resources (there will always be limiting factors) and the competition that will inevitably arise from that while not making that competition an end to itself.
- danbruc 10y agoWe have to limit population growth because of thermodynamics, otherwise we will all die. If we increase our energy consumption by 1 % per year, we will all be dead in less than 1000 years because at that point the surface temperature of Earth will have reached the boiling point of water because it can not radiate the energy into space. [1] You may object that we can reduce the energy consumption per capita and therefore have population growth without an increased energy consumption but that does not work. Starting with the population of 7.4 billion people in 2016 and a population growth rate of 1 % per year, it will take less than 1400 years until body heat alone will raise the surface temperature of Earth above the boiling point of water. [2] You may now object that we will of course move into space and leave Earth instead of sticking around here until we all get boiled alive. Unfortunately this does not help much either. With a population growth rate of 1 % per year we have 2685 more years until we run out of places to live in the Milky Way assuming 400 billion stars and one Earth-like colonizable planet per star. Unfortunately 2685 years is not nearly enough time to reach all the stars in the Milky Way. Even if we would be traveling at the speed of light, we could cross just about 2 % in that time. Even more fundamentally, space has three dimensions and therefore the number of stars and planets we can reach only increases with the third power assuming a homogeneous distribution [3] and will in consequence quickly be overwhelmed by exponential population growth within the reachable volume. We can push all those numbers to tens of millennia with a growth rate of 0.1 % per year, but that is still the blink of an eye in the grand scheme of things. So there are very real limits to the possible growth of the human population and the time frames are not that large even with moderate growth rates. [4] [1] The total emission of an ideal black body with surface area of 510.1 million km² at 373.15 K is 560,791 TW. The world total primary energy supply in 2012 is estimated to have been 155,505 TWh which is 17.75 TW on average. This is a factor of 31,591 from what Earth could radiate into space at 100 °C or 1,041 years of 1 % growth per year. [2] Assuming an average basal metabolic rate of 80 W, a population growth rate of 1 % and an initial population of 7.4 billion people, it takes 1,383 years to reach an body heat output of 560,791 TW. [3] Within a galaxy like the Milky Way it actually becomes more like the second power after some time due to the flat shape. [4] All this assuming a form of living not to different from today. Moving human brains into computers and getting rid of the bodies would certainly impact the numbers, but even then computers will still consume energy. Similarly the numbers could be impacted by major revolutions in physics. I mean really, really major changes.
- gumby 10y ago> A true Malthusian is a dangerous thing, in my opinion, insofar as they fully claim that the only way that we can all be rich is by limiting population. I'm with Julian Simon (in terms of the desirability of manually controlling the birth rate -- I'm against it). People naturally limit their offspring as they become richer -- and why not? As machines do more and more work and thus people get richer I assume the birth rate will continue to fall. I do think the birth rate is way too high.
- rrherr 10y ago“The answer to anyone who talks about the surplus population is to ask him whether he is the surplus population; or if he is not, how he knows he is not.” —G.K. Chesterton
- oblio 10y agoThanks for the great quote. I had several discussions where I couldn't quite formulate this exact thought.
- cgag 10y agoThat only seems to matter if you're trying to off people. I just want them to not be born.
- plantsoftware 10y agoHA. This article doesn't show you what happened after the great enrichment. Classic malthusian. In the late 1600s, we broke the inverse relationship between people and 'misery'. This is a joke, if not an attempt to perpetuate a ridiculous and unfounded worldview. The great enrichment, google it.
- valuearb 10y agoApparently the author believes that people are equally productive whether serfs, or freemen.
- albertTJames 10y agoSelf-determination is another variable that suffers both from population growth and increased communication, in a culture which still values crude evolutionary units of dominance. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-determination_theory https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-determination_theory On a more personal note, I have never understood how educated people could believe ressources are indefinite.
- rm_-rf_slash 10y agoA lifetime of overflowing supermarket shelves will convince anybody that scarcity is simply a problem that "someone will figure out."
- erispoe 10y agoDoes anybody really believe that, though? It's something different to say that we have large reserves of productivity to feed both economic and demographic growth for the foreseeable future, taking into account the natural slowdowns that advanced development bring (demographic transition...) and to to say that resources are literally infinite. I dont think anyone believes the latter, and it's a little of a strawman argument.
- albertTJames 10y agoI do believe a large amount of people, in the world, think ressources will never lack. Another large amount of people do not care, and those who believe we "have a large reserve of productivity to feed both economic and demographic growth for the foreseeable future" are behaving as if there was no limit. So whatever their belief, there is no qualitative difference between the three groups. You need to feel constrained to act. We have a false sense of abundance in the west, as we are draining ressources away from developing countries and our infrastructure is more robust. 2008 was also a major food crisis for the majority of the world population: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007%E2%80%9308_world_food_price_crisis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007%E2%80%9308_world_food_pri... Although it was not felt in developed countries, the tension is real, on a very large scale. The worst are religious natalist, and preachers of morality, who oppose beyond logic any proven fact about the state of the world. You see homeostasis everywhere in living organisms, dynamical systems converge to energetic minima, to believe our ingenuity will allow us to fix as we go the complex system that is Planet Earth is reckless. To think we are not as fragile as the weakest link in the food chain is foolish. http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v471/n7336/abs/nature09678.html http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v471/n7336/abs/nature09...
- sulam 10y agoAt the risk of distracting from the article itself, that graph is very odd from the perspective of this theory. Apparently wages started dropping in anticipation of a population increase? After rolling this around in my head for a few minutes (clearly I need my head examined) I wonder if the direct cause of the wage increase was simply people's willingness to accept a job in a fixed location. If you told me today that some deadly disease outbreak was under way in San Francisco, I'd leave town, but I'd be able to keep working. That likely wasn't possible during the Black Death.
- stale2002 10y agoWhat county does this guy live in? Is it America? Because Malthusian economics seems to be trivial to prove false. Population growth has stalled in 1st world countries and living standards are continuing to rise. (yes, they are. The world today is much better than it was in the 90s. By EVERY measurable quality of life statistic)
- 67726e 10y ago> Population growth has stalled in 1st world countries and living standards are continuing to rise. For whom exactly? Insofar as I'm aware, the current situation seems to be the exact opposite. Things are trending downward.
- legitster 10y agoIncome inequality is up and disposable income is down, but neither of these are measures of living standard. Access to information, quality of life, expected lifetime, food security, leisure time and spending, etc are all improved.
- 67726e 10y agoCan I get some further reading or a citation on that? That really runs counter to every thing I've been hearing. Insofar as I can tell, my prospects as a "millennial" are shit. I've definitely heard that expected lifetime is going down. I'm also not sure how "spending" is going up if "disposable income" is down. Especially when there was something posted the other day about how folks are earning less than their parents.
- legitster 10y agoWe are specifically talking about quality of life though, which is not income. Here's one on leisure time: https://www.bostonfed.org/-/media/Documents/Workingpapers/PDF/wp0602.pdf https://www.bostonfed.org/-/media/Documents/Workingpapers/PD... You can find these for a ton of different metrics. As an anecdote: when my father was my age, he was married, worked three jobs, had to build his own house, didn't have A/C, did his own car repairs, didn't have consistent heat, didn't have a TV. Maybe he made more money on paper, but I feel I definitely have it easier.
- SilasX 10y agoNot sure if choice of domain name is too OT, but ... Anyone else read the domain name as "grow the con"?
- WildUtah 10y agoexpertsexchange.com whorepresents.com
- vdnkh 10y agoFor a Malthusian exploration of the psychological/technological impact of overpopulation, check out "Stand on Zanzibar" by John Brunner. It's a bit pulpy but has some very cool ideas.
- vdnkh 10y agoFor a Malthusian exploration of the psychological/technological impact of overpopulation, check out "Stand on Zanzibar" by John Brunner. It's a bit pulpy but has some very cool ideas.
- jereme 10y agoSure human populations are increasing and quality of life is going up too, but what about the environment and biodiversity of the planet? We hit peak-human a lonnng time ago if you care about anything beyond how many you can pack on the planet. Toggle through these graphs and you will see everything is collapsing except humans: http://wikipop.org/species/rhinos http://wikipop.org/species/rhinos