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The utility of building on the green belt is questionable. The London green belt is so far away from the city center that you'd be better of living in Birmigha

The utility of building on the green belt is questionable. The London green belt is so far away from the city center that you'd be better of living in Birmigham and taking the train than trying to get in from there. The UK's biggest issue that the government housing stopped being built in the early 1980s and the number of privately built housing never increased. There has been a deficit of 200,000 housing units a year for over 30 years. Even now almost all housing that is built is built for the top end of the market and will do nothing to bring housing prices down.

glomph 10y ago
Exactly. What we need is for money to be put into affordable housing on brownfield sites in and around the cities. People don't want to live miles away from anything. Why ruin undeveloped land when there is an abundance of land (and buildings) that sits unused. The reason is because the real estate companies don't want to lose out on profit by building affordable homes on high value land. If the government actually enforced affordable housing requirements (or heaven forbid actually invested in housing directly) then that would be worth something. Instead they are pushing 'garden towns', which whatever the hell it means will probably result in facility deserts and degenerating estates as well as the unnecessary destruction of the countryside.
- djmobley 10y ago
  People don't want to live in the London green belt? Let's lift the restrictions and see if that holds true, shall we? I think you vastly underestimate the suffering millions of people in the UK are enduring as a result of the housing crisis, and the range of alternatives that would be considered an improvement for those people.
  - crdoconnor 10y ago
    >People don't want to live in the London green belt? I'd rather live centrally. If height restrictions were eliminated and councils started building pretty much everybody who wanted to, could. The housing crisis was entirely a deliberate creation of both the Tories (and to an extent, New Labour). >I think you vastly underestimate the suffering millions of people in the UK are enduring I think you're vastly overestimating the effect this would have on alleviating that. Corbyn's approach (let councils start building again) is a far more rational approach than this.
    - mrec 10y ago
      > Corbyn's approach (let councils start building again) is a far more rational approach than this. Leaving aside the question of where the money and land comes from (both main parties have announced impressive housebuilding targets at the last few GEs, and nobody's even come close to hitting them), doesn't this run afoul of parliamentary sovereignty? If "no Parliament can pass laws that future Parliaments cannot change", then even if under the current government councils manage to build a zillion new homes, won't the next Osbornean Tory or Blairite Labour government just give them all away again as electoral bribes? My gut feeling is that the #1 problem is excessive lending on housing and way too much tolerance for housing as a speculative investment. That's certainly not the only problem, but it's addressable relatively cheaply via macroprudential measures and tax law, so I'd like to see uk.gov start there and then see what further action is needed.
      - crdoconnor 10y ago
        >Leaving aside the question of where the money and land comes The money would come from "people's QE" and lifting the housing revenue account cap. Building UP, as I mentioned before, is a better way of packing more people in than creating sprawling suburbs in the green belt. For a city its size London's density has been ridiculously restrained. >both main parties have announced impressive housebuilding targets at the last few GEs, and nobody's even come close to hitting them Neither Blair's government nor the Tories have ever had any intention of building council housing, instead setting targets for the private sector. >If "no Parliament can pass laws that future Parliaments cannot change", then even if under the current government councils manage to build a zillion new homes, won't the next Osbornean Tory or Blairite Labour government just give them all away again as electoral bribes Would you prefer people didn't have homes? Just say it if that's what you want. >My gut feeling is that the #1 problem is excessive lending on housing and way too much tolerance for housing as a speculative investment. The financialization of housing exacerbated the problems caused by the shortage of housing, they obviously didn't create them.
        mrec 10y ago
        > The money would come from "people's QE" Oh, yet more printy printy. Wonderful. > Would you prefer people didn't have homes? Just say it if that's what you want. No, I wouldn't prefer that. I'd quite like an affordable home of my own at some point before I die, thank you very much. I believe social housing - free from the inflationary incentives of the PRS - has an important role to play in keeping the PRS honest, much like (AUIU) the NHS does a lot to keep the UK's private health sector honest compared to the situation in the US. But after the past few decades I don't trust uk.gov to treat social housing as an asset in the long term. > The financialization of housing exacerbated the problems caused by the shortage of housing, they obviously didn't create them. I don't think that's at all obvious. When some "investors" are buying houses and leaving them empty while they appreciate, that seems to demonstrate that this is at least as much a demand-side problem as a supply-side one. Where I live, new high-rise housing is going up everywhere you look, and prices for a 1-bed are still stuck at around 15x average earnings. I know I sound negative. 20 years of watching this madness unfold will do that to you. I have a kneejerk suspicion of "just build on brownfield land" - it's the housing equivalent of "we'll improve services and reduce taxes by cutting red tape and reducing government waste" - sounds nice, doesn't frighten anyone, but if it were really that easy you'd think it would have actually happened the last 20 times someone said it.
  - lhopki01 10y ago
    No I'm just realistic about what the private sector will do. If you look at the long running trend in house building since the second world war private companies have built roughly 200,000 units a year varying by about 50,000 units a year. Significantly this held true when the government also built 200,000 units a year and also when the government stopped building too. The private sector will only ever build for the top end of the market and never in the quantities actually needed to reduce house prices. So yes if we opened up the green belt it would be built on but it wouldn't achieve anything to alleviate the housing crisis. And before you say anything I am a late 20s person living in London without any hope of owning my own house. Finally sprawl is a massive issue and encouraging sprawl over densification will only make the situation worse.
    - Lazare 10y ago
      > No I'm just realistic about what the private sector will do. If you look at the long running trend in house building since the second world war private companies have built roughly 200,000 units a year varying by about 50,000 units a year. It would be more accurate to say: > I'm just realistic about what the government will do. If you look at the long running trend in the granting of planning permissions since the second world war, the government has allowed roughly 200,000 units a year to be built. The private sector builds as many houses as it is legally allowed to do so. This is, as you note, an insufficient number. And yes of course, when they're not allowed to build enough houses to meet demand, they will prioritize building the most profitable ones. > The private sector will only ever build for the top end of the market and never in the quantities actually needed to reduce house prices. Yes, we've passed laws to make damn sure of that. > So yes if we opened up the green belt it would be built on but it wouldn't achieve anything to alleviate the housing crisis. It's quite possibly true that focusing on denser, brownfield developments is a better idea. But it's rather absurd to suggest that building more houses isn't going to help with the problem of there not being enough houses.
djmobley 10y ago
> The London green belt is so far away from the city center that you'd be better of living in Birmigham and taking the train than trying to get in from there. Utter nonsense. Vast swathes of the green belt around London are within walking -- or a short bus journey -- distance of rail stations providing very reasonable commute times into central London. You mention the failure of private builders to meet demand for new houses. Why do you think that is? Do you think it might be something to do with inflated land prices and onerous planning restrictions? The green belt, for example?
- lhopki01 10y ago
  > You mention the failure of private builders to meet demand for new houses. Why do you think that is? No I don't think that's true. If you look at the number of privately built units of housing it has been remarkably consistent at about 200,000 units a year since the second world war. Now are you going to tell me that the regulatory regime has been the same the entire time? I'd have more sympathy for your arguments if the biggest complaint from councils about new housing was that they give planning permissions and then developers just sit on the land and send in further speculative planning applications.
  - Lazare 10y ago
    > If you look at the number of privately built units of housing it has been remarkably consistent at about 200,000 units a year Between 2006 and 20015, planning permission was awarded in England for 2,035,835 housing units. That is an average of 204,000 per year. > I'd have more sympathy for your arguments if the biggest complaint from councils about new housing was that they give planning permissions and then developers just sit on the land and send in further speculative planning applications. That is something they complain about. The data does not support it.
    - lhopki01 10y ago
      > Between 2006 and 20015, planning permission was awarded in England for 2,035,835 housing units. That is an average of 204,000 per year. You've completely missed my point. The private sector has been building 200,000 units a year since the second world war. So if the planning regime is holding them back it's been doing it since the second world war. But we haven't had a housing crisis since the second world war because we used to build enough houses. The difference is that in addition to the 200,000 privately built housing units we used to have 200,000 units of government built housing a year. That stopped at the end of the 70s and we're paying the price of 30 years of shortfalls. There's only so many living rooms that can be turned into bedrooms before it comes to a head. What I want is for councils to be given the money to build housing again. They used to do this but then the funding was cut in the very early 80s. > That is something they complain about. The data does not support it. http://www.local.gov.uk/documents/10180/11831/Unimplemented+planning+permissions+analysis/efb571d3-c869-4199-aaec-234f71eef76d http://www.local.gov.uk/documents/10180/11831/Unimplemented+... This report from local governments shows that around 50% of granted planning permissions are still waiting to be built. Additionally it says that councils approve 9/10 planning permissions really suggesting that the planning process is not at fault here.

glomph 10y ago

Exactly. What we need is for money to be put into affordable housing on brownfield sites in and around the cities. People don't want to live miles away from anything. Why ruin undeveloped land when there is an abundance of land (and buildings) that sits unused. The reason is because the real estate companies don't want to lose out on profit by building affordable homes on high value land. If the government actually enforced affordable housing requirements (or heaven forbid actually invested in housing directly) then that would be worth something. Instead they are pushing 'garden towns', which whatever the hell it means will probably result in facility deserts and degenerating estates as well as the unnecessary destruction of the countryside.

djmobley 10y ago
People don't want to live in the London green belt? Let's lift the restrictions and see if that holds true, shall we? I think you vastly underestimate the suffering millions of people in the UK are enduring as a result of the housing crisis, and the range of alternatives that would be considered an improvement for those people.
- crdoconnor 10y ago
  >People don't want to live in the London green belt? I'd rather live centrally. If height restrictions were eliminated and councils started building pretty much everybody who wanted to, could. The housing crisis was entirely a deliberate creation of both the Tories (and to an extent, New Labour). >I think you vastly underestimate the suffering millions of people in the UK are enduring I think you're vastly overestimating the effect this would have on alleviating that. Corbyn's approach (let councils start building again) is a far more rational approach than this.
  - mrec 10y ago
    > Corbyn's approach (let councils start building again) is a far more rational approach than this. Leaving aside the question of where the money and land comes from (both main parties have announced impressive housebuilding targets at the last few GEs, and nobody's even come close to hitting them), doesn't this run afoul of parliamentary sovereignty? If "no Parliament can pass laws that future Parliaments cannot change", then even if under the current government councils manage to build a zillion new homes, won't the next Osbornean Tory or Blairite Labour government just give them all away again as electoral bribes? My gut feeling is that the #1 problem is excessive lending on housing and way too much tolerance for housing as a speculative investment. That's certainly not the only problem, but it's addressable relatively cheaply via macroprudential measures and tax law, so I'd like to see uk.gov start there and then see what further action is needed.
    - crdoconnor 10y ago
      >Leaving aside the question of where the money and land comes The money would come from "people's QE" and lifting the housing revenue account cap. Building UP, as I mentioned before, is a better way of packing more people in than creating sprawling suburbs in the green belt. For a city its size London's density has been ridiculously restrained. >both main parties have announced impressive housebuilding targets at the last few GEs, and nobody's even come close to hitting them Neither Blair's government nor the Tories have ever had any intention of building council housing, instead setting targets for the private sector. >If "no Parliament can pass laws that future Parliaments cannot change", then even if under the current government councils manage to build a zillion new homes, won't the next Osbornean Tory or Blairite Labour government just give them all away again as electoral bribes Would you prefer people didn't have homes? Just say it if that's what you want. >My gut feeling is that the #1 problem is excessive lending on housing and way too much tolerance for housing as a speculative investment. The financialization of housing exacerbated the problems caused by the shortage of housing, they obviously didn't create them.
      - mrec 10y ago
        > The money would come from "people's QE" Oh, yet more printy printy. Wonderful. > Would you prefer people didn't have homes? Just say it if that's what you want. No, I wouldn't prefer that. I'd quite like an affordable home of my own at some point before I die, thank you very much. I believe social housing - free from the inflationary incentives of the PRS - has an important role to play in keeping the PRS honest, much like (AUIU) the NHS does a lot to keep the UK's private health sector honest compared to the situation in the US. But after the past few decades I don't trust uk.gov to treat social housing as an asset in the long term. > The financialization of housing exacerbated the problems caused by the shortage of housing, they obviously didn't create them. I don't think that's at all obvious. When some "investors" are buying houses and leaving them empty while they appreciate, that seems to demonstrate that this is at least as much a demand-side problem as a supply-side one. Where I live, new high-rise housing is going up everywhere you look, and prices for a 1-bed are still stuck at around 15x average earnings. I know I sound negative. 20 years of watching this madness unfold will do that to you. I have a kneejerk suspicion of "just build on brownfield land" - it's the housing equivalent of "we'll improve services and reduce taxes by cutting red tape and reducing government waste" - sounds nice, doesn't frighten anyone, but if it were really that easy you'd think it would have actually happened the last 20 times someone said it.
- lhopki01 10y ago
  No I'm just realistic about what the private sector will do. If you look at the long running trend in house building since the second world war private companies have built roughly 200,000 units a year varying by about 50,000 units a year. Significantly this held true when the government also built 200,000 units a year and also when the government stopped building too. The private sector will only ever build for the top end of the market and never in the quantities actually needed to reduce house prices. So yes if we opened up the green belt it would be built on but it wouldn't achieve anything to alleviate the housing crisis. And before you say anything I am a late 20s person living in London without any hope of owning my own house. Finally sprawl is a massive issue and encouraging sprawl over densification will only make the situation worse.
  - Lazare 10y ago
    > No I'm just realistic about what the private sector will do. If you look at the long running trend in house building since the second world war private companies have built roughly 200,000 units a year varying by about 50,000 units a year. It would be more accurate to say: > I'm just realistic about what the government will do. If you look at the long running trend in the granting of planning permissions since the second world war, the government has allowed roughly 200,000 units a year to be built. The private sector builds as many houses as it is legally allowed to do so. This is, as you note, an insufficient number. And yes of course, when they're not allowed to build enough houses to meet demand, they will prioritize building the most profitable ones. > The private sector will only ever build for the top end of the market and never in the quantities actually needed to reduce house prices. Yes, we've passed laws to make damn sure of that. > So yes if we opened up the green belt it would be built on but it wouldn't achieve anything to alleviate the housing crisis. It's quite possibly true that focusing on denser, brownfield developments is a better idea. But it's rather absurd to suggest that building more houses isn't going to help with the problem of there not being enough houses.

djmobley 10y ago

> The London green belt is so far away from the city center that you'd be better of living in Birmigham and taking the train than trying to get in from there. Utter nonsense. Vast swathes of the green belt around London are within walking -- or a short bus journey -- distance of rail stations providing very reasonable commute times into central London. You mention the failure of private builders to meet demand for new houses. Why do you think that is? Do you think it might be something to do with inflated land prices and onerous planning restrictions? The green belt, for example?

lhopki01 10y ago
> You mention the failure of private builders to meet demand for new houses. Why do you think that is? No I don't think that's true. If you look at the number of privately built units of housing it has been remarkably consistent at about 200,000 units a year since the second world war. Now are you going to tell me that the regulatory regime has been the same the entire time? I'd have more sympathy for your arguments if the biggest complaint from councils about new housing was that they give planning permissions and then developers just sit on the land and send in further speculative planning applications.
- Lazare 10y ago
  > If you look at the number of privately built units of housing it has been remarkably consistent at about 200,000 units a year Between 2006 and 20015, planning permission was awarded in England for 2,035,835 housing units. That is an average of 204,000 per year. > I'd have more sympathy for your arguments if the biggest complaint from councils about new housing was that they give planning permissions and then developers just sit on the land and send in further speculative planning applications. That is something they complain about. The data does not support it.
  - lhopki01 10y ago
    > Between 2006 and 20015, planning permission was awarded in England for 2,035,835 housing units. That is an average of 204,000 per year. You've completely missed my point. The private sector has been building 200,000 units a year since the second world war. So if the planning regime is holding them back it's been doing it since the second world war. But we haven't had a housing crisis since the second world war because we used to build enough houses. The difference is that in addition to the 200,000 privately built housing units we used to have 200,000 units of government built housing a year. That stopped at the end of the 70s and we're paying the price of 30 years of shortfalls. There's only so many living rooms that can be turned into bedrooms before it comes to a head. What I want is for councils to be given the money to build housing again. They used to do this but then the funding was cut in the very early 80s. > That is something they complain about. The data does not support it. http://www.local.gov.uk/documents/10180/11831/Unimplemented+planning+permissions+analysis/efb571d3-c869-4199-aaec-234f71eef76d http://www.local.gov.uk/documents/10180/11831/Unimplemented+... This report from local governments shows that around 50% of granted planning permissions are still waiting to be built. Additionally it says that councils approve 9/10 planning permissions really suggesting that the planning process is not at fault here.