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Uber’s Flying Car Will Have a Hard Time Getting Off the Ground

3 points by elmar 10y ago

FabHK 10y ago
The article is correct in highlighting some challenges, though I think it doesn't cover all the right ones. Challenges highlighted in the article that are not too serious, I think: * Mechanical complications with prior VTOL aircraft: Yes, VTOLs with tilt-wing or tilt-rotor design are mechanically tricky, but those constitute just a small part of the designs that are floated these days. Electric multi-engine multi-rotor concepts (big drones, basically), by contrast, are extremely simple, mechanically. (Note that the definition of VTOL in the article (vertical takeoff like a helicopter, flying horizontally like an airplane) is unusually restrictive, as it would exclude helicopters or multicopters, btw.) * Congestion. Yes, new ATC and collision avoidance techniques need to be developed and rolled out. But seriously, there is a lot of space up there, it's a big sky. If it's used effectively, it'll be just fine. * Safety: "Filling the skies over major urban centers with cars is an order of magnitude more dangerous than filling the streets with traditional cars, since at least an accident on the ground stays on the ground. An accident in the sky threatens everybody below." Yes, a car on the ground threatens everyone on the ground, and a plane threatens everyone on the ground, too. Planes are much lighter than cars, and carry less fuel. Of course, they accelerate on the way down, but all in all I think the risk is comparable. A related issue that quote might have alluded to is that aircraft crashing down could hit other aircraft below, but traffic density would have to rise considerably before that becomes an issue. Challenges not highlighted enough: * Enough battery performance, with high specific energy (kWh per kg). Progress is being made, but ploddingly. Currently still a fraction of the specific energy of av gas. * The regulatory environment in aviation is tricky - even though the US aviation regulation is probably among the lightest and innovation friendliest in the world, you can't just launch and iterate, as in startups, for obvious reasons. Regulation and low volume is why a GPS that's only a fraction as capable as an iPad costs $20k when it's certified for an aircraft.
- elmar 10y ago
  you are absolutely right the two bigest challenges are battery density and regulations.

3 points by elmar 10y ago

FabHK 10y ago

The article is correct in highlighting some challenges, though I think it doesn't cover all the right ones. Challenges highlighted in the article that are not too serious, I think: * Mechanical complications with prior VTOL aircraft: Yes, VTOLs with tilt-wing or tilt-rotor design are mechanically tricky, but those constitute just a small part of the designs that are floated these days. Electric multi-engine multi-rotor concepts (big drones, basically), by contrast, are extremely simple, mechanically. (Note that the definition of VTOL in the article (vertical takeoff like a helicopter, flying horizontally like an airplane) is unusually restrictive, as it would exclude helicopters or multicopters, btw.) * Congestion. Yes, new ATC and collision avoidance techniques need to be developed and rolled out. But seriously, there is a lot of space up there, it's a big sky. If it's used effectively, it'll be just fine. * Safety: "Filling the skies over major urban centers with cars is an order of magnitude more dangerous than filling the streets with traditional cars, since at least an accident on the ground stays on the ground. An accident in the sky threatens everybody below." Yes, a car on the ground threatens everyone on the ground, and a plane threatens everyone on the ground, too. Planes are much lighter than cars, and carry less fuel. Of course, they accelerate on the way down, but all in all I think the risk is comparable. A related issue that quote might have alluded to is that aircraft crashing down could hit other aircraft below, but traffic density would have to rise considerably before that becomes an issue. Challenges not highlighted enough: * Enough battery performance, with high specific energy (kWh per kg). Progress is being made, but ploddingly. Currently still a fraction of the specific energy of av gas. * The regulatory environment in aviation is tricky - even though the US aviation regulation is probably among the lightest and innovation friendliest in the world, you can't just launch and iterate, as in startups, for obvious reasons. Regulation and low volume is why a GPS that's only a fraction as capable as an iPad costs $20k when it's certified for an aircraft.

elmar 10y ago
you are absolutely right the two bigest challenges are battery density and regulations.