3 ms·

The cost in urban centres is the land, therefore this is a flawed approach. The land does not erode (unless you live on a cliff).

chadcmulligan 10y ago
Is it though? - the reason the land costs more is because of two things - geography (ocean views, doesn't flood etc) and the infrastructure available. The second one is what adds to land value in cities - it's a network effect. Like everything the cost of infrastructure is changing and the rate of change will increase - self driving cars will be a big factor, telecommuting, internet shopping etc. Water and electricity are others - electricity is probably also changing due to Tesla and others. You could say the cost of land is directly due to the network it is embedded in. If the cost of network construction decreases then land prices will decrease. edit: and of course social relationships are the other network effect - inner city lifestyles are an example of this
- branchless 10y ago
  Yes land is the main cost. And yes I agree it's the infra that confers the value. Yes and because the state builds the network we should tax land. Land speculators spend nothing when they see their land rise in price, it's all other people. So to phrase it differently to hopefully meet in the middle: the land is the cost, but I'm not talking about how much it costs to buy some mud, wherever that may be. The cost is the cost per acre at a given location. You also reference future changes. Perhaps, but we are in the here and now.
  - chadcmulligan 10y ago
    I think those future changes are happening now. Personally I live miles from anywhere and yet have a high tech job and telecommute. Granted I'm in the minority at the moment, but this will become more common. I suspect we are at peak land value, however time will tell.
    - branchless 10y ago
      You work in IT, this is not "the norm". Neither of us know how quickly remote work will play out, IMHO not quick. We've seen a concentration in urban areas since the original days of predictions of this, so prepare to be confounded again. We are at peak land value because it was built on credit issuance to the boomers, who are about to start selling down. This is why we have ever lower rates and QE, to counteract this force.
      - chadcmulligan 10y ago
        > You work in IT, this is not "the norm" it will be soon - all jobs are becoming IT jobs, and thats why we're on hacker news for the future not investment advice. > who are about to start selling down yes, this is going to be interesting when this happens. Have you heard others saying this? I've said it a few times and have been met with blank stares.
namlem 10y ago
It's not just the land, it's also the cost of construction. Taller buildings cost more than shorter ones.

chadcmulligan 10y ago

Is it though? - the reason the land costs more is because of two things - geography (ocean views, doesn't flood etc) and the infrastructure available. The second one is what adds to land value in cities - it's a network effect. Like everything the cost of infrastructure is changing and the rate of change will increase - self driving cars will be a big factor, telecommuting, internet shopping etc. Water and electricity are others - electricity is probably also changing due to Tesla and others. You could say the cost of land is directly due to the network it is embedded in. If the cost of network construction decreases then land prices will decrease. edit: and of course social relationships are the other network effect - inner city lifestyles are an example of this

branchless 10y ago
Yes land is the main cost. And yes I agree it's the infra that confers the value. Yes and because the state builds the network we should tax land. Land speculators spend nothing when they see their land rise in price, it's all other people. So to phrase it differently to hopefully meet in the middle: the land is the cost, but I'm not talking about how much it costs to buy some mud, wherever that may be. The cost is the cost per acre at a given location. You also reference future changes. Perhaps, but we are in the here and now.
- chadcmulligan 10y ago
  I think those future changes are happening now. Personally I live miles from anywhere and yet have a high tech job and telecommute. Granted I'm in the minority at the moment, but this will become more common. I suspect we are at peak land value, however time will tell.
  - branchless 10y ago
    You work in IT, this is not "the norm". Neither of us know how quickly remote work will play out, IMHO not quick. We've seen a concentration in urban areas since the original days of predictions of this, so prepare to be confounded again. We are at peak land value because it was built on credit issuance to the boomers, who are about to start selling down. This is why we have ever lower rates and QE, to counteract this force.
    - chadcmulligan 10y ago
      > You work in IT, this is not "the norm" it will be soon - all jobs are becoming IT jobs, and thats why we're on hacker news for the future not investment advice. > who are about to start selling down yes, this is going to be interesting when this happens. Have you heard others saying this? I've said it a few times and have been met with blank stares.

namlem 10y ago

It's not just the land, it's also the cost of construction. Taller buildings cost more than shorter ones.