5 ms·
If he did 30x a year, he must have been the best investor in the world?
by charlesdm 10y ago
If he did 30x a year, he must have been the best investor in the world?
- deleted 10y ago[deleted]
- btilly 10y agoNo, it just means an insane beta and good luck. Anyone can set up the lottery to create an insane beta. And luck, well, you know how that goes.
- shoo 10y agoyou can't judge skill from outcomes in the short run if a large component of the outcome is outside of the control of the operator see e.g. Taleb "fooled by randomness" there's also a good "winner's game" vs "loser's game" argument, see Ellis - The Loser's Game: http://www.cfapubs.org/doi/pdf/10.2469/faj.v51.n1.1865 http://www.cfapubs.org/doi/pdf/10.2469/faj.v51.n1.1865 (PDF)