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This is fun. However, does this bot perform better than a random bot? and if yes, how much?
by tmalsburg2 10y ago
This is fun. However, does this bot perform better than a random bot? and if yes, how much?
- parhurs 10y agoI'm sure the data is inconclusive for now.
- Kurtz79 10y agoI'm also sure that a fair number of data samples could be obtained in a very short time.
- tmalsburg2 10y agoNot sure, every Trump tweet that makes a positive or negative statement about a company adds one data point. So the number of samples is going to be rather small. However, whether the bot can be shown to perform significantly better than chance also depends on the size of the effect of a Trump tweet. If they produce huge bumps, a small number of tweets might be enough to show that this bot is working. Would be nice to be able to put a number on this.
- cxseven 10y agoAccording to http://trump2cash.biz/ http://trump2cash.biz/ , "Overall, the algorithm seems to succeed more often than not: The simulated fund has an annualized return of about 59% since inception. There are limits to the simulation and the underlying data, so take it all with a grain of salt."
- tmalsburg2 10y agoYes, I saw that. What we don't know is whether the bot just got lucky. Inferential stats are needed to determine this.