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On a slightly related note, I have serious doubts that even if they hit their target that the company will actually sell enough to profit in the long term, beca

by yladiz 10y ago

On a slightly related note, I have serious doubts that even if they hit their target that the company will actually sell enough to profit in the long term, because it is an electric car and they only sell electric cars. This is dissimilar to traditional car manufacturers which do manufacture electric cars but primarily make gas powered cars. The main reason I argue this is that to a lot of consumers, an electric car is nice but functionally less useful than a gas car. That is, a lot of consumers think, "What if my battery runs out? How do I charge it in an emergency?" referring to if the battery runs out somewhere. In a traditional car, if you go somewhere far and run out of gas you can just call AAA and they can either tow your car or bring you a bit of gas to get you to your next gas station, and this isn't really possible with current electric cars. Even in town, if you forget to charge your car you can't just go to the gas station, you have to wait a bit of time for your car to be ready to go. Don't discount 5 vs 15 minutes -- I can fill a car and be done in less than 5 minutes whereas it takes a bit more time to charge an electric car, even a Tesla at a supercharging station. The company that produces a car that isn't gas powered but can be re-powered in the same amount of time, or creates the technology within batteries, will be the one that causes a true revolution. I don't know if I'd go so far as to short TSLA but I am not completely convinced their cars will take off (also consider the fact that a $35,000 car is still really expensive for the average consumer).

spectrum1234 10y ago
I think the opposite is true. For Tesla owners its more like "Every day I wake up with a full tank of gas." The percentage of trips over ~215 miles is quite small. Doing the math you are saving many hours/year on average. Of course I'm not accounting for edge cases but that's the point they are edge cases.
- Gustomaximus 10y ago
  Add to this with their fast charge you can add ~70m/100km 10min. This makes topping up quite fast if your going over the range a bit any one day. Or 80% charge in 40min, which for most people would be easy to organise around lunch break or meeting if your already doing enough driving to drain the days range. Looking further ahead, the self driving will likely allow the car to go fuel itself while you are out of it. And generally we should see more and more parking spots with chargers.
- refurb 10y ago
  I think it's fair to say that there is a large percentage of the population where a trip over 215 miles is a once-per-year or less event. For myself personally, I probably take 5 or 6 trips per year where I'm covering over 400 miles in a day. The time it takes to recharge the car would be a big negative to me. It's nice to be able to jump in the car in SF early morning and be in Seattle by evening. Not sure I'd even make it half way in an electric car. I'm sure someone will comment "well this car isn't for you" and they are correct.
  - CiaranMcNulty 10y ago
    You don't want a 30-min break in the middle of that 400 miles? Your bladder/hunger control must be way better than mine
    - planteen 10y ago
      That's only 5 hours of driving at 80 mph. I sometimes drive that distance on a Friday night. Get off work, eat a quick dinner, and hit the road. I stop to gas up once and go to the bathroom at the same time. In and out in less than 10 minutes. I'm often going camping, so the fact that my vehicle is full is also important. My understanding is that a Tesla isn't fully recharged after 30 minutes. I realize this is far from average, but the OP's case isn't crazy.
      - thebiglebrewski 10y ago
        You get used to having an extra 20 or 30 minutes tacked on pretty easily. I own an S. You just have to know what the good supercharger locations are with good stuff nearby (like free WiFi)! Bring a good book with you. I don't know it sounds like I'm justifying the inconvenience...I guess for me it's about the eventual environmental impact and the self driving more than the extra 30 minutes at a rest stop!
        planteen 10y ago
        Yeah I could see getting used to that. Especially if you plan it around having dinner. Just curious, do you ever run into having to wait for a spot at the super charger? I see lots of them are 4 spots deep. Another problem is that, depending on where you are going, it looks like you might not be able to charge anywhere on the route. I found a map of locations here: http://www.teslarati.com/map/ http://www.teslarati.com/map/ Like the typical route between Denver, CO to Lake City, CO (255 miles one way) has no supercharger close. Would you modify your route to swing by the location? Or would you have a friend drive a gas car instead?
- Lightbody 10y ago
  THIS. Absolutely. I love my electric car for this reason and I _hate_ it when I'm in our hybrid and the dumb yellow E comes on and I have to make an unplanned pitstop. I also got over range anxiety pretty quickly too: I've taken our Model S from Portland to Yosemite twice. With little kids, the time to supercharge is less than the time needed to get get them all snacks, potty breaks, stretch, etc. It was great! PS: Just noticed that the last like 10-15 comments I've made are all about Tesla. I should probably get a new hobby :P
- mikeash 10y ago
  Exactly so. The last time I had to go out of my way to "fill up" my car was at the end of December. The next time will probably be this summer sometime. Sure, it slows me down a bit when I'm making those long trips, but it's a net win. It's true that this is a negative for EVs, but it's also one of their great advantages.
- pilom 10y ago
  I think you're underestimating the number of long distance trips. I have a car only for long distance trips. Short trips and commutes I can do with public transit, cross country trips I do with planes, 50-500 mile trips I do with a car. I do a trip that long almost every weekend. If I had to add 30 min to a trip from Denver to Vail and back I'd be pissed.
  - Quinner 10y ago
    Most people who own a car do not use public transit for short trips and commutes.
banhfun 10y ago
I'm sure Tesla is trying to figure this problem out without compromising the integrity of their batteries. I expect to see quick charging electric cars within the next 2 decades. Regardless, I'd still rather have a Tesla car over any ICE car because I can just charge my car at home, and I can still do road trips across the country because of superchargers. I wouldn't mind the wait at all.
marricks 10y ago
I have no idea how you're upvoted, your one problem is literally the whole reason super chargers exist. There is now a super charge grid across the country specifically for that purpose, you can literally drive to any major city in the US have have a whole line of super charger support you along the way. This will even be free for most use cases. Heck, it's even better than gas cars now where you car will actually tell you where the nearest super charger is in your range and if there are spots for you at it. The only real edge case is if someone completely doesn't heed their cars own warnings about running out of energy, and then, well, there's still tow trucks for that edge edge case. Just like if your ICE car breaks down.
njharman 10y ago
It's actually a battery company that will sell you some wrapped up in a car, attached to solar panels, or just by themselves.

by yladiz 10y ago

spectrum1234 10y ago

I think the opposite is true. For Tesla owners its more like "Every day I wake up with a full tank of gas." The percentage of trips over ~215 miles is quite small. Doing the math you are saving many hours/year on average. Of course I'm not accounting for edge cases but that's the point they are edge cases.

Gustomaximus 10y ago
Add to this with their fast charge you can add ~70m/100km 10min. This makes topping up quite fast if your going over the range a bit any one day. Or 80% charge in 40min, which for most people would be easy to organise around lunch break or meeting if your already doing enough driving to drain the days range. Looking further ahead, the self driving will likely allow the car to go fuel itself while you are out of it. And generally we should see more and more parking spots with chargers.
refurb 10y ago
I think it's fair to say that there is a large percentage of the population where a trip over 215 miles is a once-per-year or less event. For myself personally, I probably take 5 or 6 trips per year where I'm covering over 400 miles in a day. The time it takes to recharge the car would be a big negative to me. It's nice to be able to jump in the car in SF early morning and be in Seattle by evening. Not sure I'd even make it half way in an electric car. I'm sure someone will comment "well this car isn't for you" and they are correct.
- CiaranMcNulty 10y ago
  You don't want a 30-min break in the middle of that 400 miles? Your bladder/hunger control must be way better than mine
  - planteen 10y ago
    That's only 5 hours of driving at 80 mph. I sometimes drive that distance on a Friday night. Get off work, eat a quick dinner, and hit the road. I stop to gas up once and go to the bathroom at the same time. In and out in less than 10 minutes. I'm often going camping, so the fact that my vehicle is full is also important. My understanding is that a Tesla isn't fully recharged after 30 minutes. I realize this is far from average, but the OP's case isn't crazy.
    - thebiglebrewski 10y ago
      You get used to having an extra 20 or 30 minutes tacked on pretty easily. I own an S. You just have to know what the good supercharger locations are with good stuff nearby (like free WiFi)! Bring a good book with you. I don't know it sounds like I'm justifying the inconvenience...I guess for me it's about the eventual environmental impact and the self driving more than the extra 30 minutes at a rest stop!
      - planteen 10y ago
        Yeah I could see getting used to that. Especially if you plan it around having dinner. Just curious, do you ever run into having to wait for a spot at the super charger? I see lots of them are 4 spots deep. Another problem is that, depending on where you are going, it looks like you might not be able to charge anywhere on the route. I found a map of locations here: http://www.teslarati.com/map/ http://www.teslarati.com/map/ Like the typical route between Denver, CO to Lake City, CO (255 miles one way) has no supercharger close. Would you modify your route to swing by the location? Or would you have a friend drive a gas car instead?
Lightbody 10y ago
THIS. Absolutely. I love my electric car for this reason and I _hate_ it when I'm in our hybrid and the dumb yellow E comes on and I have to make an unplanned pitstop. I also got over range anxiety pretty quickly too: I've taken our Model S from Portland to Yosemite twice. With little kids, the time to supercharge is less than the time needed to get get them all snacks, potty breaks, stretch, etc. It was great! PS: Just noticed that the last like 10-15 comments I've made are all about Tesla. I should probably get a new hobby :P
mikeash 10y ago
Exactly so. The last time I had to go out of my way to "fill up" my car was at the end of December. The next time will probably be this summer sometime. Sure, it slows me down a bit when I'm making those long trips, but it's a net win. It's true that this is a negative for EVs, but it's also one of their great advantages.
pilom 10y ago
I think you're underestimating the number of long distance trips. I have a car only for long distance trips. Short trips and commutes I can do with public transit, cross country trips I do with planes, 50-500 mile trips I do with a car. I do a trip that long almost every weekend. If I had to add 30 min to a trip from Denver to Vail and back I'd be pissed.
- Quinner 10y ago
  Most people who own a car do not use public transit for short trips and commutes.

banhfun 10y ago

I'm sure Tesla is trying to figure this problem out without compromising the integrity of their batteries. I expect to see quick charging electric cars within the next 2 decades. Regardless, I'd still rather have a Tesla car over any ICE car because I can just charge my car at home, and I can still do road trips across the country because of superchargers. I wouldn't mind the wait at all.

marricks 10y ago

I have no idea how you're upvoted, your one problem is literally the whole reason super chargers exist. There is now a super charge grid across the country specifically for that purpose, you can literally drive to any major city in the US have have a whole line of super charger support you along the way. This will even be free for most use cases. Heck, it's even better than gas cars now where you car will actually tell you where the nearest super charger is in your range and if there are spots for you at it. The only real edge case is if someone completely doesn't heed their cars own warnings about running out of energy, and then, well, there's still tow trucks for that edge edge case. Just like if your ICE car breaks down.

njharman 10y ago

It's actually a battery company that will sell you some wrapped up in a car, attached to solar panels, or just by themselves.