4 ms·

That video was impressive. It shows great situational awareness. Here's what I wonder about the future. Is there a point in which consolidation will take pla

by golfer 10y ago

That video was impressive. It shows great situational awareness. Here's what I wonder about the future. Is there a point in which consolidation will take place in the auto industry as a result of superior self-driving performance and capabilities? Meaning -- can the value created by self-driving software be more of a factor than the other existing assets of a GM, Ford, Chrysler, Toyota, etc?

gizmo 10y ago
I predict that self-driving technology will become a commoditized box + sensors for use by different car brands. It will very quickly reach the point where one autonomous driving engine will not be noticeably better or worse than any of the others on the market.
- golfer 10y ago
  Interesting. So price will not factor in? And, will a luxury car be expected to have better self-driving awareness/features than a cheaper car? And before it hits commodity state, what if Waymo's Chrysler minivans and GM's Chevrolets are far superior self-drivers than say, BMWs & Mercedes? How much does that alter the demand curve?
  - gizmo 10y ago
    I don't expect there to be different tiers of autonomous driving, because the sensors are cheap and the software can be duplicated at no cost. There are a billion cars in the world, so whatever the initial cost is to develop the self driving software, it's going to be pennies per car in the long run. It will be very tough for car manufacturers to defend their customers dying in a totally avoidable accident because their driving AI -- like a chess engine -- deliberately made a worse move because the customer didn't buy the premium package. I expect premium car brands to charge more for the same self-driving technology, though, as at least in the short term self-driving capability will be sold as an expensive extra. I think the commodity stage will be hit two years after the first truly self-driving cars are sold. So it shouldn't give one brand a lasting advantage.
    - saiya-jin 10y ago
      there might be some added value in premium cars - for example certification that it can go 100kmh fully autonomous (better processing hardware, more & expensive sensors), 130 (as per most EU countries) and so on. BMW can have a gap on safe driving at 200 kmh, ferrari 250 kmh. but overall I feel those premium brands will have very tough times - most of their added value is in driving experience (for example what BMW delivers in ie 3-sedans is a wonderful experience) and this will be removed. not that many people feel the need to pay premium for something that will feel like a commercial airliner, travelling will be race to the bottom costwise.
      - inimino 10y ago
        > most of their added value is in driving experience I think BMW's added value is in comfort and prestige. People buy a BMW because they can afford it and other people can see that they have one. The ride is smooth, the interior is nice, it has good sound insulation, etc. A small fraction buys them because they are fun to drive. BMW makes luxury sedans, not sports cars. The top of the luxury sedan market is not Ferrari but RR and Bentley where people literally buy the car and pay someone else to drive it.
  - jessaustin 10y ago
    ...will a luxury car be expected to have better self-driving awareness/features than a cheaper car? Haha it will be the first time in history for BMWs to be driven in safe responsible fashion...

by golfer 10y ago

gizmo 10y ago

I predict that self-driving technology will become a commoditized box + sensors for use by different car brands. It will very quickly reach the point where one autonomous driving engine will not be noticeably better or worse than any of the others on the market.

golfer 10y ago
Interesting. So price will not factor in? And, will a luxury car be expected to have better self-driving awareness/features than a cheaper car? And before it hits commodity state, what if Waymo's Chrysler minivans and GM's Chevrolets are far superior self-drivers than say, BMWs & Mercedes? How much does that alter the demand curve?
- gizmo 10y ago
  I don't expect there to be different tiers of autonomous driving, because the sensors are cheap and the software can be duplicated at no cost. There are a billion cars in the world, so whatever the initial cost is to develop the self driving software, it's going to be pennies per car in the long run. It will be very tough for car manufacturers to defend their customers dying in a totally avoidable accident because their driving AI -- like a chess engine -- deliberately made a worse move because the customer didn't buy the premium package. I expect premium car brands to charge more for the same self-driving technology, though, as at least in the short term self-driving capability will be sold as an expensive extra. I think the commodity stage will be hit two years after the first truly self-driving cars are sold. So it shouldn't give one brand a lasting advantage.
  - saiya-jin 10y ago
    there might be some added value in premium cars - for example certification that it can go 100kmh fully autonomous (better processing hardware, more & expensive sensors), 130 (as per most EU countries) and so on. BMW can have a gap on safe driving at 200 kmh, ferrari 250 kmh. but overall I feel those premium brands will have very tough times - most of their added value is in driving experience (for example what BMW delivers in ie 3-sedans is a wonderful experience) and this will be removed. not that many people feel the need to pay premium for something that will feel like a commercial airliner, travelling will be race to the bottom costwise.
    - inimino 10y ago
      > most of their added value is in driving experience I think BMW's added value is in comfort and prestige. People buy a BMW because they can afford it and other people can see that they have one. The ride is smooth, the interior is nice, it has good sound insulation, etc. A small fraction buys them because they are fun to drive. BMW makes luxury sedans, not sports cars. The top of the luxury sedan market is not Ferrari but RR and Bentley where people literally buy the car and pay someone else to drive it.
- jessaustin 10y ago
  ...will a luxury car be expected to have better self-driving awareness/features than a cheaper car? Haha it will be the first time in history for BMWs to be driven in safe responsible fashion...