There was actually an analysis done a while back of the outcomes of every game in the last world-cup that showed statistically just how unpredictable soccer gam

There was actually an analysis done a while back of the outcomes of every game in the last world-cup that showed statistically just how unpredictable soccer games are. The punchline is that soccer is very unpredictable, especially given the bracket setup of the World Cup. I can't seem to track down the article now, but I sort of remember the logic... If Team A beats Team B, then Team B beats Team C, then Team C beats Team A, then you've demonstrated at least a 33% probability of a fluke outcome in the soccer bracket. This is highly simplified of course, but repeat this analysis over a much larger sample size, and you get some pretty convincing results (and I really wish I could find that paper now).