3 ms·

> b) the more work is done by machines, the richer the population as a whole will be True - as a whole. But as things stand now, the owners of the machines get

by foxylad 10y ago

> b) the more work is done by machines, the richer the population as a whole will be True - as a whole. But as things stand now, the owners of the machines get richer, and the displaced workers get significantly poorer. My concern is this. In ten years time, trucks and taxis will be automated, and vanishingly few truck drivers will be able to retrain as truck computer techs. Truck and taxi driving is the last bastion of badly-educated men, (apart from the military, but automation will be gutting military employment too). So we're going to have a huge (many millions) population of (to generalise horribly) redneck men who like guns and feel worthless. Even now, 2/3s of gun death in the US is that exact demographic suiciding. I believe these guys gave Trump his victory, and when they realise even he's let them down, those that don't kill themselves are going to revolt. A UBI could be part of the solution to this nightmare, because it would take the economic aspect out of the equation. It would mean unemployment lost its stigma, because at least some people chose to do their own thing (playing music, carving wood, reading at schools) instead of working for the man. So it would become socially acceptable not to have a paying job. Sadly I think it's very unlikely to happen, unless the rich figure out that their wealth is going to be redistributed violently if they don't do voluntarily.

harryh 10y ago
The US suicide rate has been pretty flat for about 50 years. There was a decent drop from the mid 80s until 2000 that has since reverted to norm but it's not historically high. Increasing automation of lower skilled jobs has been going on for a long time. It's hard to see that correlating with any increase in the suicide rate.
- FullMtlAlcoholc 10y ago
  > The US suicide rate has been pretty flat for about 50 years. There was a decent drop from the mid 80s until 2000 that has since reverted to norm but it's not historically high. I don't believe you are analyzing this considering the context. What that implies is that we have not made any significant advances in preventing suicides and treating the root causes despite the many resources being allocated to it. In the last 50 years, there has been more total wealth and prosperity. Most importantly, there has been a revolution in how mental illness is viewed by not only medical professionals, but by society at large, and we have developed better treatments for it From suicide hotlines to modern police training that includes how to deal with the mentally ill. The curve SHOULD be trending and that is isn't is a potential cause for worry.
tarr11 10y ago
The average age of a commercial truck driver in the US is 55. Many of these people will be retired, and younger people are (rightfully) avoiding this industry.
reddytowns 10y ago
> Sadly I think it's very unlikely to happen, unless the rich figure out that their wealth is going to be redistributed violently if they don't do voluntarily. Do you really think this will be possible in a decade? With the advances in technology such as the military robots, you yourself describe, it seems increasingly unlikely.
vacri 10y ago
> those that don't kill themselves are going to revolt. There has already been civil revolting in recent times. The police being shot at during the BLM stuff is what it looks like. The days of organising a 'continental army' and taking the current government head on are long gone (in developed countries, at least). Making an organisation large enough to even start to annoy the US military would be nipped in the bud long before it happens. But there will be lots of small-scale or individual revolting. The methods of government in the US are not going to change (eg: the Electoral College) because fairer systems would work against the current parties in power, and changing the constitution itself is extremely difficult, even for something as conceptually simple as 'no more alcohol' ('new electoral process' doesn't stand a chance). So, barring massive social disaster, things will carry on as-is. Trump will do a lot of damage to convention and will highlight lots of edge-cases, but the underlying systems will barely move. There will be revolts, but it's not going to change anything structurally.

by foxylad 10y ago

harryh 10y ago

The US suicide rate has been pretty flat for about 50 years. There was a decent drop from the mid 80s until 2000 that has since reverted to norm but it's not historically high. Increasing automation of lower skilled jobs has been going on for a long time. It's hard to see that correlating with any increase in the suicide rate.

FullMtlAlcoholc 10y ago
> The US suicide rate has been pretty flat for about 50 years. There was a decent drop from the mid 80s until 2000 that has since reverted to norm but it's not historically high. I don't believe you are analyzing this considering the context. What that implies is that we have not made any significant advances in preventing suicides and treating the root causes despite the many resources being allocated to it. In the last 50 years, there has been more total wealth and prosperity. Most importantly, there has been a revolution in how mental illness is viewed by not only medical professionals, but by society at large, and we have developed better treatments for it From suicide hotlines to modern police training that includes how to deal with the mentally ill. The curve SHOULD be trending and that is isn't is a potential cause for worry.

tarr11 10y ago

The average age of a commercial truck driver in the US is 55. Many of these people will be retired, and younger people are (rightfully) avoiding this industry.

reddytowns 10y ago

> Sadly I think it's very unlikely to happen, unless the rich figure out that their wealth is going to be redistributed violently if they don't do voluntarily. Do you really think this will be possible in a decade? With the advances in technology such as the military robots, you yourself describe, it seems increasingly unlikely.

vacri 10y ago

> those that don't kill themselves are going to revolt. There has already been civil revolting in recent times. The police being shot at during the BLM stuff is what it looks like. The days of organising a 'continental army' and taking the current government head on are long gone (in developed countries, at least). Making an organisation large enough to even start to annoy the US military would be nipped in the bud long before it happens. But there will be lots of small-scale or individual revolting. The methods of government in the US are not going to change (eg: the Electoral College) because fairer systems would work against the current parties in power, and changing the constitution itself is extremely difficult, even for something as conceptually simple as 'no more alcohol' ('new electoral process' doesn't stand a chance). So, barring massive social disaster, things will carry on as-is. Trump will do a lot of damage to convention and will highlight lots of edge-cases, but the underlying systems will barely move. There will be revolts, but it's not going to change anything structurally.