4 ms·

This is the point. Make computers do work, then sit back and drink a mojito ( or your drink of choice ). Get a new hobby if you want to work.

legostormtroopr 10y ago
How do you pay for the mojito? Society has been conditioned to the idea that "if you work, you get stuff". In fact the current system is rigged to ensure that, so if jobs go away instead of mojito, you get nothing, and instead of hobbies you get to beg. I'd love nothing more than a post-scarcity world where everyone get enough to live on, and people who do more get more. However there are X things that will stop that: 1. We have the resource to do this for everyone, but it means some people will have to reduce their quality of life 2. People like to work, they need to have meaning - some people will find hobbies, but some people just aren't creative thinkers and need some direction from society or otherwise. Here is education and basic wage, now go away won't suit everyone 3. It means the people at the top end need to sacrifice some. That isn't going to happen.
- VLM 10y ago
  Less than half the population works and pays for everything everyone else uses. The majority are not in the "people like to work" camp. Its not going to be a major problem. Over half the population either strives (no change necessary) or simply exists (no change necessary) There's a lot of political sloganeering about redistribution and basic incomes that make it politically impossible. What seems likely to me is utility-ization of more services and abstraction of who pays (if anyone). That's a free public utility sounds a lot more likely politically than "forced redistribution of wealth at gunpoint" or "basic income" or "universal welfare" or whatever. Even if it ends up being the same thing with a different name. You don't need to wave cash in the air to obtain a policeman's service and this seems quite normal. Obviously "somehow" some kind of shuffle game is producing salary for that policeman, but its kinda abstract and out of sight. Likewise our supermarkets are likely to go extremely downscale in quality, but will have no cash registers. People will continue to trade labor for money and trade money for services and better class of stuff. I'm just thinking in 2075 it'll seem conceptually weird to pay an electric bill, just like it would seem conceptually weird today to obtain a policemans services by waving a $20 in the air. Paying an exit fee at a register at a public food store will seem as weird as paying an exit fee to a public library. Why would I pay for medical care, I don't pay for water or oxygen or wifi? No one expects a bill for storm drain service today, its very abstract. Likewise no one will get a bill for natural gas service, although in a very abstract sense someone will get paid for it. Now the public food store will have little better than human kibble able to keep alive but if you want the fancy stuff, get a service job and trade for really good food. I suspect the black market will flourish. How the new economies will deal with legacy economies like real estate or FIRE sector in general or the legacy IP economy will be interesting to watch.
  - subway 10y ago
    Currently that police officer is motivated by money. That money comes from taxes collected by siphoning off a bit of value every time value changes hands. How do you continue motivating that police officer? Or the engineers/technicians operating the free-electricity boxes?
    - VLM 10y ago
      Exactly my point. How do you pay for social workers in a poor city, how do you pay for the welfare state now? Surely you can't expect a social worker to carry around a cash register, their clients don't have money after all. I'm not sure how the back end will roll out but I know for sure the front end will roll out as a cultural shift in how we view most of the economic transactions we perform today. We can't slip "universal welfare" or "socialized medicine" past politics today, the concept of basic income is unacceptable to too many. Because we need it anyway it'll be rolled out as the death of the shopkeeper transaction economy. I'm sure someone pays the snowplow driver, somehow. I don't wave $20 bills in his face before he plows the street in front of my house, nor does he threaten to kneecap me if I don't pay up after he plows. He doesn't send me a bill either. And god forbid in red blooded America we have "socialized plowing" or "basic plowing" or "universal road care". None the less somewhere in the back there is a massive shell game going on with prop tax revenues and budget and somehow that plow gets filled with diesel and 99.99% of the population pays it no attention while simultaneously obtaining completely communist street snow plowing services based solely on need. Just make sure to never point out in polite company that we have "socialized plowing" or a "universal basic snowplow". A lot of people talk about end user UI which is not going to happen in the USA. 100% change we will have socialized medicine and the only thing 100% certain about the scheme is we will not call it socialized medicine. It'll be like "medicine as a service" or "public utility medical services" or "One of many benefits of living in this fine city much like the free public parks"
visarga 10y ago
Who will make sure you get your fair share of the automation profits?
- VLM 10y ago
  As a controversial idea intended to provoke thought and not knee jerk political reactions, consider that in human history, much as we are in a bubble of fossil fuel burning, we are in a bubble of equality. If in the infinite oscillation of all human activity, is there any reason to exclude the past being the future? Is a future stone age impossible because we have run out of stone? A common theme in ancient history was omnipotent leader getting pissed off at the sea (for sinking a fleet, or just because he's a jerk, it don't matter why) so he walks out in the sea and whips it or orders his army to slash at the sea. No matter how much you might dislike the idea of the end of the equality bubble, disliking it really really hard is about as effective at preventing the future as whipping the sea is at teaching hurricanes not to vaporize naval fleets. Hey those blue collar jobs are going away, best get used to it, learn something new. Hey that human equality thing is going away, best get used to it, learn something new. Even analogies don't work. You can say we learned the technologies of freedom and equality and they only increase over time because... well because of luck so far. Just like we learned the technology of burning coal or slavery, we learned it and it can only increase over time because ... well it did out of luck until it stopped. One's gone, the other's starting to go away, maybe everything in this paragraph is over, eventually. I don't like it, isn't a valid rebuttal. Personally I don't like it, but I'm willing to devils advocate it a bit and its one of those things where if your mind is open and not dogmatically shut you can't discount the highly likely (but not 100%) probability. You can tell mother nature "we must have a solution meeting my criteria A B and C" and if those are unsolvable, she is quite unconstrained in actual practice.
  - Animats 10y ago
    A common theme in ancient history was omnipotent leader getting pissed off at the sea (for sinking a fleet, or just because he's a jerk, it don't matter why) so he walks out in the sea and whips it or orders his army to slash at the sea. You have the King Canute story all wrong.[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/King_Canute_and_the_waves https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/King_Canute_and_the_waves]
knieveltech 10y ago
How do you bridge the gap between now and what you've described without recreating the Russian Revolution?

legostormtroopr 10y ago

How do you pay for the mojito? Society has been conditioned to the idea that "if you work, you get stuff". In fact the current system is rigged to ensure that, so if jobs go away instead of mojito, you get nothing, and instead of hobbies you get to beg. I'd love nothing more than a post-scarcity world where everyone get enough to live on, and people who do more get more. However there are X things that will stop that: 1. We have the resource to do this for everyone, but it means some people will have to reduce their quality of life 2. People like to work, they need to have meaning - some people will find hobbies, but some people just aren't creative thinkers and need some direction from society or otherwise. Here is education and basic wage, now go away won't suit everyone 3. It means the people at the top end need to sacrifice some. That isn't going to happen.

VLM 10y ago
Less than half the population works and pays for everything everyone else uses. The majority are not in the "people like to work" camp. Its not going to be a major problem. Over half the population either strives (no change necessary) or simply exists (no change necessary) There's a lot of political sloganeering about redistribution and basic incomes that make it politically impossible. What seems likely to me is utility-ization of more services and abstraction of who pays (if anyone). That's a free public utility sounds a lot more likely politically than "forced redistribution of wealth at gunpoint" or "basic income" or "universal welfare" or whatever. Even if it ends up being the same thing with a different name. You don't need to wave cash in the air to obtain a policeman's service and this seems quite normal. Obviously "somehow" some kind of shuffle game is producing salary for that policeman, but its kinda abstract and out of sight. Likewise our supermarkets are likely to go extremely downscale in quality, but will have no cash registers. People will continue to trade labor for money and trade money for services and better class of stuff. I'm just thinking in 2075 it'll seem conceptually weird to pay an electric bill, just like it would seem conceptually weird today to obtain a policemans services by waving a $20 in the air. Paying an exit fee at a register at a public food store will seem as weird as paying an exit fee to a public library. Why would I pay for medical care, I don't pay for water or oxygen or wifi? No one expects a bill for storm drain service today, its very abstract. Likewise no one will get a bill for natural gas service, although in a very abstract sense someone will get paid for it. Now the public food store will have little better than human kibble able to keep alive but if you want the fancy stuff, get a service job and trade for really good food. I suspect the black market will flourish. How the new economies will deal with legacy economies like real estate or FIRE sector in general or the legacy IP economy will be interesting to watch.
- subway 10y ago
  Currently that police officer is motivated by money. That money comes from taxes collected by siphoning off a bit of value every time value changes hands. How do you continue motivating that police officer? Or the engineers/technicians operating the free-electricity boxes?
  - VLM 10y ago
    Exactly my point. How do you pay for social workers in a poor city, how do you pay for the welfare state now? Surely you can't expect a social worker to carry around a cash register, their clients don't have money after all. I'm not sure how the back end will roll out but I know for sure the front end will roll out as a cultural shift in how we view most of the economic transactions we perform today. We can't slip "universal welfare" or "socialized medicine" past politics today, the concept of basic income is unacceptable to too many. Because we need it anyway it'll be rolled out as the death of the shopkeeper transaction economy. I'm sure someone pays the snowplow driver, somehow. I don't wave $20 bills in his face before he plows the street in front of my house, nor does he threaten to kneecap me if I don't pay up after he plows. He doesn't send me a bill either. And god forbid in red blooded America we have "socialized plowing" or "basic plowing" or "universal road care". None the less somewhere in the back there is a massive shell game going on with prop tax revenues and budget and somehow that plow gets filled with diesel and 99.99% of the population pays it no attention while simultaneously obtaining completely communist street snow plowing services based solely on need. Just make sure to never point out in polite company that we have "socialized plowing" or a "universal basic snowplow". A lot of people talk about end user UI which is not going to happen in the USA. 100% change we will have socialized medicine and the only thing 100% certain about the scheme is we will not call it socialized medicine. It'll be like "medicine as a service" or "public utility medical services" or "One of many benefits of living in this fine city much like the free public parks"

visarga 10y ago

Who will make sure you get your fair share of the automation profits?

VLM 10y ago
As a controversial idea intended to provoke thought and not knee jerk political reactions, consider that in human history, much as we are in a bubble of fossil fuel burning, we are in a bubble of equality. If in the infinite oscillation of all human activity, is there any reason to exclude the past being the future? Is a future stone age impossible because we have run out of stone? A common theme in ancient history was omnipotent leader getting pissed off at the sea (for sinking a fleet, or just because he's a jerk, it don't matter why) so he walks out in the sea and whips it or orders his army to slash at the sea. No matter how much you might dislike the idea of the end of the equality bubble, disliking it really really hard is about as effective at preventing the future as whipping the sea is at teaching hurricanes not to vaporize naval fleets. Hey those blue collar jobs are going away, best get used to it, learn something new. Hey that human equality thing is going away, best get used to it, learn something new. Even analogies don't work. You can say we learned the technologies of freedom and equality and they only increase over time because... well because of luck so far. Just like we learned the technology of burning coal or slavery, we learned it and it can only increase over time because ... well it did out of luck until it stopped. One's gone, the other's starting to go away, maybe everything in this paragraph is over, eventually. I don't like it, isn't a valid rebuttal. Personally I don't like it, but I'm willing to devils advocate it a bit and its one of those things where if your mind is open and not dogmatically shut you can't discount the highly likely (but not 100%) probability. You can tell mother nature "we must have a solution meeting my criteria A B and C" and if those are unsolvable, she is quite unconstrained in actual practice.
- Animats 10y ago
  A common theme in ancient history was omnipotent leader getting pissed off at the sea (for sinking a fleet, or just because he's a jerk, it don't matter why) so he walks out in the sea and whips it or orders his army to slash at the sea. You have the King Canute story all wrong.[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/King_Canute_and_the_waves https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/King_Canute_and_the_waves]

knieveltech 10y ago

How do you bridge the gap between now and what you've described without recreating the Russian Revolution?