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Let's assume your algorithm moves the market: 1) This is not a big problem: Lots of machine learning and control theory involves dealing with feedback loops. 2)
by BickNowstrom 10y ago
Let's assume your algorithm moves the market: 1) This is not a big problem: Lots of machine learning and control theory involves dealing with feedback loops. 2) If it moves the market in a predictable way, you can use this to make money.
The Western world is capitalist, not a Platonic ideal. Even if you strongly feel that people should have different reasons to invest, you will not be able to sway them (unless you can show that your alternative makes them even more money).
If you claim that long-term outperforming of the market is highly unlikely, you contribute outperforming to short-time flukes: The stock market is essentially unpredictable or in perfect equilibrium.
Unpredictability implies all these hedge funds would do better consulting random number generators, instead of well-paid quants.
Equilibrium implies the current market is operating at maximum efficiency, yet one currently makes money by exploiting non-equilibrium and erroneous evaluations.
- CuriouslyC 10y agoPoint #2 is what I'm talking about. Any algorithm that is going to make money long term on a large scale has to be inherently unpredictable, which is difficult if it is an algorithm that predicts the future state of the market from past data. Sure, the world is less than perfect in a lot of ways. In most cases we try and fix it. Why is capitalism the one way where we say "oh well, that's just how things are" ?? Research has demonstrated that barring insider information, random stock picking often outperforms "experts". I believe the market is fairly efficient, and people who make money are either lucky or are leveraging short term information differentials, which in today's hyper-connected society are going to become increasingly rare (barring insider information, again).