3 ms·
> Bruce Bueno de Mesquita [...] has made some impressively accurate political forecasts In stories like these I always like to know how many incorrect predicti
by yehi 10y ago
> Bruce Bueno de Mesquita [...] has made some impressively accurate political forecasts
In stories like these I always like to know how many incorrect predictions they made as well. I mean, if a squid can predict the results of a sports game, how impressive is what Bruce Bueno de Mesquita did?
- mafribe 10y agoA good proxy measure for the accuracy of BBdM's prediction would be how rich he got out of them. Given that BBdM's mostly concerned with macroscopic predictions about politics his claim [1] that he was right in 2/3 of his predictions, should have translated into immense wealth. [1] Source: an old interview with him, maybe 10 years ago. I might be wildly misremembering here. Sorry, no better sources.
- ThrustVectoring 10y agoBeing correct in 2/3rds of predictions isn't enough to get rich - he could very well have gotten more things wrong than the conventional wisdom that earns $0 on average.