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If you look at enough variables, you WILL find a correlation with whatever you are looking at. Key paragraph: Vinyl flooring is commonplace in Sweden, where o
by frossie 16y ago
If you look at enough variables, you WILL find a correlation with whatever you are looking at.
Key paragraph:
Vinyl flooring is commonplace in Sweden, where only about 1 percent of homes have carpeted floors. But it is uncommon in U.S. bedrooms, so it may not be related to autism among American children. However, carpeting contains other contaminants, including pesticides and brominated flame retardants, which have been found to harm brain development in animal tests.
This makes me very suspicious, because it smacks of "our unusual theory does not bear out when we look at another country, so we will come up with another unusual theory to explain the effect there".
Also, while I am not familiar with Sweden, there are other places where vinyl/carpet flooring versus wood/tile correlates with socioeconomic factors.
- scott_s 16y agoYou're being uncharitable to the researchers. They have no theory for why they found this correlation - they weren't even looking for it. They noticed something unusual in their data, they reported it and invited further investigation. That's the responsible thing to do.
- georgieporgie 16y agoI think it was the Scientific American compilation that leaves a bad taste in one's mouth. They repeatedly quote "this is only preliminary, don't draw conclusions!" then finish the paragraph by drawing conclusions...
- anigbrowl 16y agoIn fairness, that handwaving is from Sciam's writers; the study itself is quoted on page 1, expressing caution against drawing conclusions: 'The data are far from conclusive. They are puzzling, even baffling, and not readily explicable at this time. However, because they are among the few clues that have emerged about possible environmental contributions to autistic disorders, we believe that they should be weighed carefully and warrant further study.' If their insight is correct, it may be significant. Other data (eg the link about smoking in this article, and many other sources) suggest a degree of heritability, as well as noticing the correlation with asthma, which condition is also thought to be heritable. Although modern vinyl flooring may be low in phthalate emissions, they may well have been higher in the past. I grew up with linoleum in a lot of the house, and well remember its characteristic smell (along with those of vinyl car seats and a bunch of other plastics which were widespread in the 1970s). While I certainly wouldn't draw conclusions from that about having ADD - factors like parental smoking are likely to have played a more significant role - it's worthy of further study.
- mattmcknight 16y agoEven they aren't saying anything about linoleum... "Infants or toddlers who lived in bedrooms with vinyl, or PVC, floors were twice as likely to have autism five years later, in 2005, than those with wood or linoleum flooring.
- anigbrowl 16y agoSorry, sloppy copy-editing on my part.