The problem with that analysis is that ignores the risk. A 40% chance of winning the lottery would be great, because in the 60% case you've only lost a few buck

The problem with that analysis is that ignores the risk. A 40% chance of winning the lottery would be great, because in the 60% case you've only lost a few bucks on the ticket. However, a 40% chance of winning in a casino is not ideal, because in the 60% case you've lost a ton of money.