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One way to detect suspect predictions is to look at which ones suggest improvements to things we have today without changing them significantly. For example, p

One way to detect suspect predictions is to look at which ones suggest improvements to things we have today without changing them significantly. For example, people envision self-driving cars that are exactly like the cars we have today, only automatic. They predict that they will still be big, expensive, complicated, multi-person vehicles. I'm sure that category will continue exist, but why will that remain the norm? The size and complexity of cars are major drawbacks (e.g. storage, traffic, cost). With bicycles, we can see that small individual vehicles have significant advantages due to their size, cost, and simplicity. With self-driving cars, I think there will be room to borrow some of those advantages. Today, we have to build cars with safety as a major concern, but when self-driving vehicles are common, we will not have to. If we are free to relax during a car journey, the ability to travel at high speed may not be such a major concern, either. The typical self-driving car could easily be something inexpensive, small, and simple like the PodRide instead: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4lKq1fGtXFM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4lKq1fGtXFM

Ntrails 10y ago
>If we are free to relax during a car journey, the ability to travel at high speed may not be such a major concern, either. Most of the people I've spoken to firmly believe self driving cars will be faster, not slower. They'll be safer and more consistent at speed so it's reasonable to trust them to do so safely. When the train takes 4 hours and I can drive it in 2h30 - I take the car. Just the fact that I get to "relax" is not sufficient.
- oftenwrong 10y ago
  Most car trips are much shorter than that, although that could change when driving is no longer necessary. For an occasional long-distance trip, it would make sense to buy a ride on a purpose-built high-speed self-driving vehicle. Kind of like a personal train cabin. For day-to-day commuting and errands, people could be able to spend much less for a smaller, slower, simpler vehicle that is potentially cheap enough for an average person to own.

Ntrails 10y ago

>If we are free to relax during a car journey, the ability to travel at high speed may not be such a major concern, either. Most of the people I've spoken to firmly believe self driving cars will be faster, not slower. They'll be safer and more consistent at speed so it's reasonable to trust them to do so safely. When the train takes 4 hours and I can drive it in 2h30 - I take the car. Just the fact that I get to "relax" is not sufficient.

oftenwrong 10y ago
Most car trips are much shorter than that, although that could change when driving is no longer necessary. For an occasional long-distance trip, it would make sense to buy a ride on a purpose-built high-speed self-driving vehicle. Kind of like a personal train cabin. For day-to-day commuting and errands, people could be able to spend much less for a smaller, slower, simpler vehicle that is potentially cheap enough for an average person to own.