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Just given the timing of the business cycle, Trump is likely to face a recession or at least a stagnation by the time he's working on reelection in 2020. There'
by WildUtah 10y ago
Just given the timing of the business cycle, Trump is likely to face a recession or at least a stagnation by the time he's working on reelection in 2020. There's very little he can do about it now: Most economists believe it takes almost four years for fiscal policy to affect the business cycle and two years for monetary policy. And Trump won't be appointing his own Federal Reserve chairman to set monetary policy until 2018 at the earliest.
But Trump can take action that will open up jobs and raise wages for American workers even in the face of a recession. He can deport illegal aliens and cut off the H-1B and L cheap professional visa categories. That would create a lot of working class and lower-tier professional jobs for Americans fast.
- scholia 10y agoYup. All those unemployed miners from Ohio are going to move to California and become maids, pool cleaners, burger-flippers and agricultural workers.
- WildUtah 10y agoOH and CA aren't swing states.
- hirsin 10y agoOhio is one of the most notorious swing states. 538 lists them as Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin
- WildUtah 10y agoTrump won Ohio 51-43. If that swings all the way back into competitive territory, his re-election is doomed anyway. Just because a state is a swing state with a regular Republican (like Ohio or Colorado) doesn't mean it's a swing state when a very abnormal Republican like Trump is running.
- meddlepal 10y agoI'm not sure we'll ever see a "normal" Republican or Democrat again win a presidential election. Trump has paved a path forward for modern campaigns to run off extreme rhetoric and FUD as a means to mobilize their voting base.
- mateo411 10y agoYes, and Obama won Ohio in 2012 by 3 percentage points. He also won it in 2008. However, George W Bush won it in 2004.
- scholia 10y agoWhy is that important? You're welcome to substitute any states you like.... The fact is that many migrants are willing to risk destitution or even death to relocate, and they will work their socks off at menial jobs for a better life (for their children in particular). How many unemployed American workers are doing the same?
- toomuchtodo 10y agoWhy should you have to work a shit job because someone from another country will? Start prosecuting employers of illegal immigrants, and you'll see the wage floor rise. Employers are not entitled to cheap labor. Advocating for such an environment is why the US has a pseudo-populist president now.
- scholia 10y agoSorry, I thought the claim was that removing immigrants would create more jobs for Americans. As far as I can see, it would just create jobs that Americans won't or can't do. And while you can raise the wage-floor, that increases costs, which may well raise prices....
- Inconel 10y ago>As far as I can see, it would just create jobs that Americans won't or can't do. I see this stated often, largely by people who have never worked these types of jobs, and for the record I'm not saying that this is the case with you, but it really doesn't match my own experiences. I've worked as a janitor in a super market, a landscaper, a manual laborer in construction, a laborer in the Central Valley on a farm, as well as a dishwasher, all in CA, and while my coworkers were mostly Hispanic, and some were undocumented, many were white, black or Asian and born in the US. These were all minimum wage or below jobs so I'm not sure were this idea is coming from. When people are poor and desperate, they will usually take any work they can get regardless of immigration status or citizenship.
- scholia 10y ago
- andrewmutz 10y agoOhio wasn't a swing state this cycle, but has been one for the last 20 years or so.
- TheGirondin 10y agoOH defiantly was swing state - Real Clear Politics had them switching sides frequently.
- flukus 10y agoIf supply and demand were allowed to run their course then a lot might, but a surplus supply is created instead.
- scholia 10y agoIs there something that stops American workers moving to American places that have jobs? It seems to me that a lot already do that.
- flukus 10y agoThey have to be jobs worth moving for and capable of sustaining you when you get there.
- drob 10y agoThere are a number of factors that make relocation harder and less common than it needs to be. One is the number of underwater mortgages – mortgages in which the remaining balance is greater than the value of the home – which make selling all but impossible. Another is that the parts of the country with growing economies and lots of great jobs are generally cities with incredibly high rents. It's not easy to move halfway across the country to take an entry-level job and somehow live off that if you need to pay Bay Area / NY Area / DC Area / etc rents, and doubly so if you have a family. This is one reason I think it's so critical to build a serious urbanist movement in US. The status quo of restrictive zoning, low building, and sky-high rents keeps hundreds of thousands of people from being able to access the places that would enable them to build better lives. If we allowed our cities to grow and invested in the transit infrastructure to keep them livable at even moderately higher densities, it could unleash a tremendous amount of prosperity.
- projektfu 10y agoThere are only 1100 employed miners in Ohio. The unemployed ones are going to have to find something to do.
- base698 10y agoUnfortunately a lot of them are stuck with mortgage debt--American dream.
- TheGirondin 10y agoThe oil boom in ND drew thousands of medium skill workers for very high paying jobs that could not go to illegals. If the people in CA are not willing to pay their maids fair market wages, then maybe they can do their own fucking dishes.