This isn't a warranted conclusion. The market was showing signs of slowing down before the tax was implemented. Post ergo propter hoc. The more likely cause of

This isn't a warranted conclusion. The market was showing signs of slowing down before the tax was implemented. Post ergo propter hoc. The more likely cause of the rise and then decline in Vancouver prices is the incredible levels of debt home buyers are taking on, due to low interest rates. This is a testable hypothesis. Toronto is currently where Vancouver was pretax: rising prices, but decline in inventory and overall sales volume. If Toronto declines in 6-12 months without a tax, then the tax likely wasn't the major cause of the Vancouver decline.