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I find the unbridled optimism just unfathomable. Here's two examples of plain old jet programs, small jets at that: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitsubishi_Reg

by chx 10y ago

I find the unbridled optimism just unfathomable. Here's two examples of plain old jet programs, small jets at that: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitsubishi_Regional_Jet https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitsubishi_Regional_Jet 1.5 billion dollars. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombardier_CSeries https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombardier_CSeries 5.4 billion dollars. This is not a piece of software app that you can just launch whenever you feel ready full of bugs. You can't pull an Uber and say, hey fuck regulations, we will just do it (https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/dec/19/uber-self-driving-cars-bike-lanes-safety-san-francisco https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/dec/19/uber-self...). Yeah, sure, if you want to fly between Inner and Outer Camelstan then you might get away with the very fashionable "disrupt" shit but if you want to fly airspaces controlled by the FAA, EASA, CASA -- and let's face it, the money is in New York, London and Sydney -- then you need to do better. This is going to cost 5-10 billion dollars at least just based on the very fact that the C Series costed 5B and I can't see what here would make it cheaper. And it's not easy to see how are you going to recuperate that much money, this is not a big market and while obviously time is money, it's a very big question of just how much money. Gulfstream delivers 140 planes a year https://www.wsj.com/articles/general-dynamics-profit-rises-9-1453905234 https://www.wsj.com/articles/general-dynamics-profit-rises-9... with about 2-2.5b profit a year. I absolutely can not see how these numbers will stack up. Is this another venture capitalist fueled hype? VC invests, hypes it up, gets rid of the stock, small investors at the end get to hold the bag.

mabbo 10y ago
The C-Series was a mess because Bombardier owned it. Thank goodness that company hasn't gotten into the pizza business because they sure as heck can't deliver on time. (Still waiting for the rest of the promised street cars here in Toronto, years behind schedule)
- kogepathic 10y ago
  Yes but I think things have gotten a lot better under Alain Bellemare. Obviously they aren't hitting all their delivery targets, and that's worrying, but what struck me is that Bellemare said shortly after he took over the company was only a few weeks from bankruptcy. It seems he has managed to put them somewhat back on track, TTC deliveries aside of course...
deleted 10y ago
[deleted]
ThenAsNow 10y ago
> I find the unbridled optimism just unfathomable. Agreed. This is due to fawning "enthusiast" type reporters with little understanding of the technical issues or the history. But then, which field is free of this phenomenon when reported by non-specialist press? Even specialist press (e.g., Aviation Week) tends to be overly credulous. The big publications that captured my imagination growing up, like Popular Mechanics and Popular Science, are really not any better. The people with the longest head start and most interesting technology are the Aerion crowd, and they have been gestating for years without a lot of hardware to show for it. Boom, Spike, and others are receiving too little skepticism, IMO.
- ghaff 10y ago
  Furthermore, as with high-speed rail but to an even greater degree, there are a lot of people who are enthusiastic about the idea but wouldn't actually be customers. If you don't routinely fly first/business class between New York and London today, you wouldn't fly a supersonic plane if one were available.
- chx 10y ago
  You do not even need to be aware of the nitty-gritty details, it's enough to look at any jet program costs. Heck, even the Russians https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sukhoi_Superjet_100 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sukhoi_Superjet_100 couldn't build a regional jet below 1.5B.
nether 10y ago
Good thing that South African PayPal founder ignored the doubters in the early 2000s. They were saying the exact same things.
- chx 10y ago
  The two are, at most, superficially similar. Or not at all.

by chx 10y ago

mabbo 10y ago

The C-Series was a mess because Bombardier owned it. Thank goodness that company hasn't gotten into the pizza business because they sure as heck can't deliver on time. (Still waiting for the rest of the promised street cars here in Toronto, years behind schedule)

kogepathic 10y ago
Yes but I think things have gotten a lot better under Alain Bellemare. Obviously they aren't hitting all their delivery targets, and that's worrying, but what struck me is that Bellemare said shortly after he took over the company was only a few weeks from bankruptcy. It seems he has managed to put them somewhat back on track, TTC deliveries aside of course...

deleted 10y ago

[deleted]

ThenAsNow 10y ago

> I find the unbridled optimism just unfathomable. Agreed. This is due to fawning "enthusiast" type reporters with little understanding of the technical issues or the history. But then, which field is free of this phenomenon when reported by non-specialist press? Even specialist press (e.g., Aviation Week) tends to be overly credulous. The big publications that captured my imagination growing up, like Popular Mechanics and Popular Science, are really not any better. The people with the longest head start and most interesting technology are the Aerion crowd, and they have been gestating for years without a lot of hardware to show for it. Boom, Spike, and others are receiving too little skepticism, IMO.

ghaff 10y ago
Furthermore, as with high-speed rail but to an even greater degree, there are a lot of people who are enthusiastic about the idea but wouldn't actually be customers. If you don't routinely fly first/business class between New York and London today, you wouldn't fly a supersonic plane if one were available.
chx 10y ago
You do not even need to be aware of the nitty-gritty details, it's enough to look at any jet program costs. Heck, even the Russians https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sukhoi_Superjet_100 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sukhoi_Superjet_100 couldn't build a regional jet below 1.5B.

nether 10y ago

Good thing that South African PayPal founder ignored the doubters in the early 2000s. They were saying the exact same things.

chx 10y ago
The two are, at most, superficially similar. Or not at all.