Amazon just has such a huge head start in so many ways, it's difficult to imagine anyone catching up with them anytime soon. For purchasing online, most people

Amazon just has such a huge head start in so many ways, it's difficult to imagine anyone catching up with them anytime soon. For purchasing online, most people just immediately type "amazon" into their web browser. People will never have any reason to do anything differently, unless Amazon starts screwing up the user experience, or becomes significantly more expensive than other online sites. Neither of those things is likely to happen. Suggesting that such things will happen is like suggesting that some other search engine is going to quickly replace Google. I guess all bets are off when one tries to look ten years out–the entire world can change radically in ten years–but personally, I'd bet good money that Amazon and Google will still be the largest players by far for their markets. The more interesting question, I think, is for how long will Amazon maintain its lead in cloud computing. Cloud computing is something of a commodity, so companies will have a great deal of incentive to go with whoever can do it most cheaply. As long as they do it well, that is. I'd still put my money on Amazon.