4 ms·

> But if they are also employed as engineers somewhere else, the lack of engineering talent just moves to those other companies. That, of course, is the entir

> But if they are also employed as engineers somewhere else, the lack of engineering talent just moves to those other companies. That, of course, is the entire purpose of high prices. You want some of the demand to go away because they find it to be too expensive so that the supply eventually matches up to the demand. There would be no purpose in having different prices for different jobs otherwise. A shortage happens when price cannot rise for some reason, such as the government implementing a wage ceiling. I'm not quite sure what could be preventing price from rising in this specific case. It seems like a pretty wide open market. > Any lack of developers we have today doesn't come from them choosing other occupations because programming doesn't pay the bills Or they are simply doing better elsewhere. Paying the bills isn't necessarily enough incentive. Even in my own situation, while I still keep my foot in the developer door a bit, I am spending more and more time in my other careers. I could go back to programming full time, but I haven't found an offer incentivizing enough yet.

stale2002 10y ago
That is an Economists definition of a shortage. Not a normal persons definition of a shortage. Let's say a loaf of bread went up in price to 100$, and the majority of people in the USA were literally starving to death. Yes or no, is the US suffering from a food shortage? I would argue, yes.
- randomdata 10y ago
  It is, of course, an economist term. Although I am interested to learn more about your perspective. How do you quantify a 'normal person' shortage? * Does every single person need to be able to afford bread for it to not be a food shortage? Or is it okay if some still go without as long as the price goes below a certain point? What is that point? * Is there a shortage of Ferraris because they cost hundreds of thousands of dollars, which is more than I can spend on car? Or are non-essential items not included in shortages? * If non-essential items are excluded, what is essential about developers? We lived for hundreds of thousands of years without without software just fine. * If developers are essential, are they always going to be in a shortage situation until they all work for free? I can imagine several developer jobs I would have done for $1/hr, but not for $10/hr, as it is no longer worth the cost to me at that point. I may agree with you, but I'm not quite sure I understand what a 'normal person' shortage even is. It does not seem to be clearly defined anywhere.
  - stale2002 10y ago
    Labor markets are inherently inelastic in the short term. I'd define a shortage by comparing short and long term movements in labor. As in, if price goes way way up for certain positions, it takes a long time for labor to react and produce more supply. This is bad. So in the short term, there is a shortage of developers, while labor catches up and tries to fulfill this demand. To put it another way, imagine if workers could see the future, 10 years ago, and could know how high salaries for devs were going to be. If workers were armed with this knowledge, a whole lot more of them would have chosen to go into tech. The Ferrari example doesn't work, because if Ferrari 10 years ago, knew exactly how much demand was going to be, I don't think it would have changed their supply or price at all. I am not sure of a better word for this "shortage", but I am thinking of any situation where expectations for the future do not match up with the reality of the future, in short term inelastic markets. And the solution to this market information failure is to either get better information about the future or work towards making the market more elastic.
    - randomdata 10y ago
      So how does this apply to developers? I remember in the 90s it was already considered the job to have if you want to make a lot of money. That's a good 20 years to prepare the workforce, at least (I start to become too young to have really paid attention to the job market before that). I got my first full-time programming job soon after the dot-com bust and even at that time it paid better than the offers I'm seeing for new hires these days. And that's without even factoring in inflation. They are making quite a bit less than I was in real dollars. By that definition I think it is very safe to say that there isn't any sign of a developer shortage. It is a high paying profession, for sure, but it always has been. It's not like it was a minimum wage job 10 years ago. It was still a six figure job even then.

stale2002 10y ago

That is an Economists definition of a shortage. Not a normal persons definition of a shortage. Let's say a loaf of bread went up in price to 100$, and the majority of people in the USA were literally starving to death. Yes or no, is the US suffering from a food shortage? I would argue, yes.

randomdata 10y ago
It is, of course, an economist term. Although I am interested to learn more about your perspective. How do you quantify a 'normal person' shortage? * Does every single person need to be able to afford bread for it to not be a food shortage? Or is it okay if some still go without as long as the price goes below a certain point? What is that point? * Is there a shortage of Ferraris because they cost hundreds of thousands of dollars, which is more than I can spend on car? Or are non-essential items not included in shortages? * If non-essential items are excluded, what is essential about developers? We lived for hundreds of thousands of years without without software just fine. * If developers are essential, are they always going to be in a shortage situation until they all work for free? I can imagine several developer jobs I would have done for $1/hr, but not for $10/hr, as it is no longer worth the cost to me at that point. I may agree with you, but I'm not quite sure I understand what a 'normal person' shortage even is. It does not seem to be clearly defined anywhere.
- stale2002 10y ago
  Labor markets are inherently inelastic in the short term. I'd define a shortage by comparing short and long term movements in labor. As in, if price goes way way up for certain positions, it takes a long time for labor to react and produce more supply. This is bad. So in the short term, there is a shortage of developers, while labor catches up and tries to fulfill this demand. To put it another way, imagine if workers could see the future, 10 years ago, and could know how high salaries for devs were going to be. If workers were armed with this knowledge, a whole lot more of them would have chosen to go into tech. The Ferrari example doesn't work, because if Ferrari 10 years ago, knew exactly how much demand was going to be, I don't think it would have changed their supply or price at all. I am not sure of a better word for this "shortage", but I am thinking of any situation where expectations for the future do not match up with the reality of the future, in short term inelastic markets. And the solution to this market information failure is to either get better information about the future or work towards making the market more elastic.
  - randomdata 10y ago
    So how does this apply to developers? I remember in the 90s it was already considered the job to have if you want to make a lot of money. That's a good 20 years to prepare the workforce, at least (I start to become too young to have really paid attention to the job market before that). I got my first full-time programming job soon after the dot-com bust and even at that time it paid better than the offers I'm seeing for new hires these days. And that's without even factoring in inflation. They are making quite a bit less than I was in real dollars. By that definition I think it is very safe to say that there isn't any sign of a developer shortage. It is a high paying profession, for sure, but it always has been. It's not like it was a minimum wage job 10 years ago. It was still a six figure job even then.