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Why would a 250 trendline to still hold relevance after the introduction of the transistor and the network? I don't think modern society is in any way ready to
by rboyd 10y ago
Why would a 250 trendline to still hold relevance after the introduction of the transistor and the network?
I don't think modern society is in any way ready to reoptimize for the accelerating displacement that robotics and ai bring.
- jethro_tell 10y agoWe've had automation of physical tasks for a long time. Automation of mental tasks is a whole different ball game. People who think we're seeing more of the same game have no idea. You can't compare a machine being stronger/faster than a person to a machine being smarter than a person. It's not the same thing, and we aren't ready for it, partly just because people don't recognize the difference between the two.
- maverick_iceman 10y agoA lot of mental tasks have been automated away. Pen and paper to slide rule to electronic calculator etc.
- jethro_tell 10y agoWell, the calculation has been automated away. before now, you still needed a semi-competent person to input the values for computation. Now a computer can start to do that. We'll see things like computer vision tools that can estimate concrete order volumes based on a couple quick looks into the forms.
- BurningFrog 10y agoYou talk like the transistor was invented last week. Computers have taken away mental jobs for half a century now. That era has lifted the greatest number of people out of poverty in history. Employment and income keeps going normally. I agree that it's possible that this trend will break. But be aware that all through these 250 years, people have constantly predicted this, and always had plausible arguments for why "this time it's different".