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Here's the canonical example: A is correlated to C. B is correlated to C. A is NOT correlated to B. How is that possible? The argument is that, if causation
by mhermher 10y ago
Here's the canonical example:
A is correlated to C. B is correlated to C. A is NOT correlated to B.
How is that possible?
The argument is that, if causation is unidirectional and acyclical, then the only causal structure that leads to the above is that A and B both cause C.
There's no other way to do it. And you can derive causation from observational data!
Of course in real life there are a bunch of problems with this, particularly measurement error and hidden unmeasured or unmeasurable variables. But more or less those exist with experimental data as well. You can only conclude things about observed variables and a very large number of unmeasured variables could throw off your inference.
Anyway, I more or less held your belief on this until I read Pearl's (and colleagues') material. There's much more expansion to it than the canonical example above.
- lngnmn 10y agoAssuming unproven causality is exactly how uneducated primitive people used to form their religious beliefs. Churches are related to people. People are related to the Sun. The Sun is caused by the prayers of the people in churches. Sun is in the sky today because someone somewhere prayed.