> The actual outcome of an event does not depend on your expectation. Of course :-). The actual outcome of an event doesn't much care what probability we assig

> The actual outcome of an event does not depend on your expectation. Of course :-). The actual outcome of an event doesn't much care what probability we assign to it. With diligence, the causality goes the other way, and e.g. about x% of the events to which we assign probability x% occur. If they're off by a large margin, we should revise our probabilities, because the universe certainly isn't going to change.