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A Quantitative Prediction for Political Violence in the 2020s
- metasean 10y agoAsimov introduced the concept of "psychohistory" in his Foundations series [1]. Psychohistory "combines history, sociology, and mathematical statistics to make general predictions about the future behavior of very large groups of people" [1] Almost a decade ago I heard about a researcher who took up the gauntlet of developing psychohistory. His name is Peter Turchin. Because there was an established academic field already named psychohistory [2], he named his field of study "Cliodynamics" [3]. When I first heard about Dr. Turchin, he had recently made a prediction that we were likely to see political violence in the 2020s [4, 5]. In this current blog entry he talks about factors that are likely to influence whether there is or is not political violence in the next few years. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychohistory_(fictional) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychohistory_(fictional) [2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychohistory https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychohistory [3]: http://peterturchin.com/cliodynamics/ http://peterturchin.com/cliodynamics/ [4]: http://www.zdnet.com/article/cliodynamics-a-science-for-predicting-the-future/# http://www.zdnet.com/article/cliodynamics-a-science-for-pred...! [5]: http://peterturchin.com/PDF/Turchin_JPR2012.pdf http://peterturchin.com/PDF/Turchin_JPR2012.pdf