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The math facts aren't completely correct since we don't know the ratio of Advanced degree vs. non advanced ones. Also the table includes transferred and renewe
by vmarsy 10y ago
The math facts aren't completely correct since we don't know the ratio of Advanced degree vs. non advanced ones.
Also the table includes transferred and renewed H1B, for which the cap does not apply.
What would be interesting is to know the number of new H1B applicant of those big companies. Let's assume it's around 40k for the top 3 in that list: Infosys+Capgemini+Tata, and assume all Advanced degree seats gets filled, then there'd be 236-20 = 216k remaining applicants in the undergrad pool (Advanced degree gets 2 chances: one in the advanced degree pool, where 20k gets picked, then those who didn't get picked in that round fall back in the normal pool. Without knowing the ratio but assuming it's at least 20k Advanced degree applicants, the only thing we can conclude is that there is 216k remaining applicants in the Non-advanced degree pool).
With 65k seats, with I+C+T, there's a 65/216 = 30% chance of getting an H1B if you don't have a US Advanced degree. Now let's suppose we completely forbid I+C+T to get H1B visas, then there would be a 65/(216-40) = 36% chance of getting an H1B. It's an increase, but 36% remains pretty low.
This is an extreme example where we would completely forbid those to apply, if instead we limit them to 10k as the author suggest, the probability increase of people not in those companies would be even less important.
Regarding exempting the cap for those who studied in the US, I think that would be a great idea, as long as "fake" universities[1][2] do not exist.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/University_of_Northern_New_Jersey https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/University_of_Northern_New_Jer... - This one is interesting as it was created by DHS as a bait.
[2] https://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/06/nyregion/new-jersey-university-was-fake-but-visa-fraud-arrests-are-real.html?_r=1 https://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/06/nyregion/new-jersey-unive...
- hocuspocus 10y agoThere are already a few real universities of dubious value that profit from the current situation. I've seen former coworkers work 1-2 years after graduating, save up to be able to afford a Masters in one of those bottom tier universities, and they're now employed on OPT status.