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I think this looks a lot more prescient than it really is. Searls says that whatever Jobs created at Apple would be: original, innovative, exclusive, expensive

I think this looks a lot more prescient than it really is. Searls says that whatever Jobs created at Apple would be: original, innovative, exclusive, expensive, [beautiful], maybe influenced by other software tycoons, and minimally influenced by developers. He's right on all counts. It's a good picture of Steve Jobs. What's missing? Searls didn't say one word about the likelihood that Steve Jobs would be successful, and that success is what makes him something other than Just Another Malignant Narcissist CEO.

pohl 16y ago
Reg: All right, but apart from the sanitation, medicine, education, wine, public order, irrigation, roads, the fresh water system and public health, what have the Romans ever done for us?
- mnemonicsloth 16y ago
  I don't think this means what you think it means. Consider the situation in 36 AB (After Brian): By the summer of 70 the Romans had breached the walls of Jerusalem, ransacking and burning nearly the entire city... The Second Temple (the rennovated Herod's Temple) was destroyed on Tisha B'Av (29 or 30 July 70). Tacitus... notes that those who were besieged in Jerusalem amounted to no fewer than six hundred thousand, that men and women alike and every age engaged in armed resistance, everyone who could pick up a weapon did, both sexes showed equal determination, preferring death to a life that involved expulsion from their country. All three walls were destroyed and in turn so was the Temple, some of whose overturned stones and their place of impact can still be seen... The famous Arch of Titus still stands in Rome: it depicts Roman legionaries carrying the Temple of Jerusalem's treasuries, including the Menorah, during Titus's triumphal procession in Rome. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Jewish-Roman_War http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Jewish-Roman_War Even after crushing the Judean revolt, the Romans provided sanitation, medicine, education, wine, public order, irrigation, roads, the fresh water system and public health. But they also destroyed the symbolic center of the Jewish identity.
  - pohl 16y ago
    I guess I have to put too fine a point on it, huh: the bit about the romans was incidental. I was using the character — "Reg" — as a parody of your criticism: Reg: all right, but apart from originality, innovation, exclusivity, price-point, beauty, the possibility of being influenced by other software tycoons, and minimality of influence by developers, how was Doc Searls at all prescient here?
    - mnemonicsloth 16y ago
      Searls said "Steve Jobs will do things exactly the same way as he has always done things." He did a good job of describing those things. I said as much earlier. But he was being observant, not prescient. Here's prescient: "Steve Jobs will do things exactly the same way as he has always done things, and this time Apple will become bigger, sexier, and more powerful than Microsoft." See also: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindsight_bias http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindsight_bias Hindsight bias is the inclination to see events that have occurred as more predictable than they in fact were before they took place. Hindsight bias has been demonstrated experimentally in a variety of settings...
      - pohl 16y ago
        Yeah, none of that was lost on me. I wasn't laughing at your expense or trying to invalidate your message. The similarity to that scene was just irresistible.
      - CamperBob 16y ago
        But he was being observant, not prescient. There's no difference.
  - shadowsun7 16y ago
    Dude, that was a Monty Python reference. I like your counter-argument, but still: it was a Monty Python reference.
    - mnemonicsloth 16y ago

pohl 16y ago

Reg: All right, but apart from the sanitation, medicine, education, wine, public order, irrigation, roads, the fresh water system and public health, what have the Romans ever done for us?

mnemonicsloth 16y ago
I don't think this means what you think it means. Consider the situation in 36 AB (After Brian): By the summer of 70 the Romans had breached the walls of Jerusalem, ransacking and burning nearly the entire city... The Second Temple (the rennovated Herod's Temple) was destroyed on Tisha B'Av (29 or 30 July 70). Tacitus... notes that those who were besieged in Jerusalem amounted to no fewer than six hundred thousand, that men and women alike and every age engaged in armed resistance, everyone who could pick up a weapon did, both sexes showed equal determination, preferring death to a life that involved expulsion from their country. All three walls were destroyed and in turn so was the Temple, some of whose overturned stones and their place of impact can still be seen... The famous Arch of Titus still stands in Rome: it depicts Roman legionaries carrying the Temple of Jerusalem's treasuries, including the Menorah, during Titus's triumphal procession in Rome. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Jewish-Roman_War http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Jewish-Roman_War Even after crushing the Judean revolt, the Romans provided sanitation, medicine, education, wine, public order, irrigation, roads, the fresh water system and public health. But they also destroyed the symbolic center of the Jewish identity.
- pohl 16y ago
  I guess I have to put too fine a point on it, huh: the bit about the romans was incidental. I was using the character — "Reg" — as a parody of your criticism: Reg: all right, but apart from originality, innovation, exclusivity, price-point, beauty, the possibility of being influenced by other software tycoons, and minimality of influence by developers, how was Doc Searls at all prescient here?
  - mnemonicsloth 16y ago
    Searls said "Steve Jobs will do things exactly the same way as he has always done things." He did a good job of describing those things. I said as much earlier. But he was being observant, not prescient. Here's prescient: "Steve Jobs will do things exactly the same way as he has always done things, and this time Apple will become bigger, sexier, and more powerful than Microsoft." See also: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindsight_bias http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindsight_bias Hindsight bias is the inclination to see events that have occurred as more predictable than they in fact were before they took place. Hindsight bias has been demonstrated experimentally in a variety of settings...
    - pohl 16y ago
      Yeah, none of that was lost on me. I wasn't laughing at your expense or trying to invalidate your message. The similarity to that scene was just irresistible.
    - CamperBob 16y ago
      But he was being observant, not prescient. There's no difference.
- shadowsun7 16y ago
  Dude, that was a Monty Python reference. I like your counter-argument, but still: it was a Monty Python reference.
  - mnemonicsloth 16y ago