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Yes. This is a pretty standard thought experiment to demonstrate the concept of anthropogenic probability, where we apply the anthropoid principle to Bayesian (

by baddox 10y ago

Yes. This is a pretty standard thought experiment to demonstrate the concept of anthropogenic probability, where we apply the anthropoid principle to Bayesian (or other) probability. The two answers come from two different assumptions: the self-sampling assumption or the self-indication assumption. These are effectively two different models for the hypothetical world described in the thought experiment, and without the thought experimenter telling you which model to use (i.e. how you were sampled in the thought experiment), there's not a whole lot you can do other than choose your favorite. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-sampling_assumption https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-sampling_assumption https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-indication_assumption https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-indication_assumption These terms come from Nick Bostrom, but I prefer Scott Aaronson's description: http://www.scottaaronson.com/democritus/lec17.html http://www.scottaaronson.com/democritus/lec17.html

justinpombrio 10y ago
That distinction doesn't even come in to it, though. Take the analogy with the thought experiment from Aaronson's description: A coin is flipped. If heads, two rooms are created: one with a red-haired person, and one with a green-haired person. If tails, one room is created with a red-haired person. The analogy is that the coin is the coin, heads means "wake up in 100 years", tails means "wake up in 1 year", red-haired is the person who goes in in 2020, and green-haired is the person who goes in in 2119. However, unlike Aaronson's interesting experiment, in the Nautilus article experiment you know beforehand that you have red hair and will continue to have red hair regardless of which way the coin goes. The year you were frozen is known; you know your name; you know the year you entered. The interesting question doesn't even arise.

by baddox 10y ago

justinpombrio 10y ago

That distinction doesn't even come in to it, though. Take the analogy with the thought experiment from Aaronson's description: A coin is flipped. If heads, two rooms are created: one with a red-haired person, and one with a green-haired person. If tails, one room is created with a red-haired person. The analogy is that the coin is the coin, heads means "wake up in 100 years", tails means "wake up in 1 year", red-haired is the person who goes in in 2020, and green-haired is the person who goes in in 2119. However, unlike Aaronson's interesting experiment, in the Nautilus article experiment you know beforehand that you have red hair and will continue to have red hair regardless of which way the coin goes. The year you were frozen is known; you know your name; you know the year you entered. The interesting question doesn't even arise.