4 ms·

I find it interesting that the majority of the "outside assistance" in this case came back to Heather as the culprit. On one hand, it makes a lot of sense that

I find it interesting that the majority of the "outside assistance" in this case came back to Heather as the culprit. On one hand, it makes a lot of sense that the person most immediately involved would likely be the prime suspect. On the other hand, it also leaves you wondering just how willing to step outside their own pre-existing biases these people are?

lutusp 10y ago
> On the other hand, it also leaves you wondering just how willing to step outside their own pre-existing biases these people are? If (as is true in cases like this one) a large database of solved cases reveal that the crimes are often self-inflicted, then it's not bias, it's common sense and the dispassionate result of statistical analysis. Consider the murder of marriage partners -- in very many cases, the perpetrator is the other marriage partner, and that's the first person investigated. Is that bias, or common sense? "Over 71% of Wives Kill Their Husbands" : https://rmaxgenactivepua.wordpress.com/2013/07/19/over-71-of-wives-kill-their-husbands-stats-we-have-to-take-notice-of/ https://rmaxgenactivepua.wordpress.com/2013/07/19/over-71-of... (The title is somewhat misleading -- it means that, when a husband is murdered, in 71% of cases, the perpetrator is the partner.)
- brontosnorous 10y ago
  Or perhaps: 71% or married men, who are murdered, are found to have been killed by their spouses.
- emeraldd 10y ago
  True, the point where it becomes bias in my mind is when they decide that the assumption is true and don't look further than the first guess.
  - somestag 10y ago
    Yes, this is definitely the true issue. Suspect whomever you want; carry out your investigation with an open mind regardless. To disregard a pattern is stupidity, but to enslave yourself to it is laziness.
    - emeraldd 10y ago
      > To disregard a pattern is stupidity, but to enslave yourself to it is laziness. I may have to quote you on that one ;)
zkms 10y ago
That multiple involved people were totally willing to suspect/blame Heather is rather more troubling to me than the actual act of sabotage (if only because a tendency to assume that such sabotage is self-inflicted can let culprits get away without even being suspected).
- protomyth 10y ago
  Its the most likely pattern from prior cases, just as if a man's wife gets murdered then the man is suspect one. Experience, and patterns in general, often trouble our souls, but there is a reason they are patterns. Also, as this case shows, the previous pattern can be wrong. Its an easy time saver to pursue the things that have happened in the past before spiraling out to new suspects. The real problem is if you do not do the actual investigation and assume this follows previous experience. The assumptions without proof almost always lead to tragedy. Developers use this technique every day ("Well, I saw X so its probably Y in this code") so we follow the same investigative behavior and I hope developers put the time in to make sure the problem is really what happened just as I hope all law enforcement do the same.
wyager 10y ago
The author did not punish Heather based on his entirely reasonable suspicions. There's nothing wrong with having a reasonable a priori guilt distribution for a crime, so long as you don't punish people based on weak evidence and you allow for new evidence to update your guilt distribution.

lutusp 10y ago

> On the other hand, it also leaves you wondering just how willing to step outside their own pre-existing biases these people are? If (as is true in cases like this one) a large database of solved cases reveal that the crimes are often self-inflicted, then it's not bias, it's common sense and the dispassionate result of statistical analysis. Consider the murder of marriage partners -- in very many cases, the perpetrator is the other marriage partner, and that's the first person investigated. Is that bias, or common sense? "Over 71% of Wives Kill Their Husbands" : https://rmaxgenactivepua.wordpress.com/2013/07/19/over-71-of-wives-kill-their-husbands-stats-we-have-to-take-notice-of/ https://rmaxgenactivepua.wordpress.com/2013/07/19/over-71-of... (The title is somewhat misleading -- it means that, when a husband is murdered, in 71% of cases, the perpetrator is the partner.)

brontosnorous 10y ago
Or perhaps: 71% or married men, who are murdered, are found to have been killed by their spouses.
emeraldd 10y ago
True, the point where it becomes bias in my mind is when they decide that the assumption is true and don't look further than the first guess.
- somestag 10y ago
  Yes, this is definitely the true issue. Suspect whomever you want; carry out your investigation with an open mind regardless. To disregard a pattern is stupidity, but to enslave yourself to it is laziness.
  - emeraldd 10y ago
    > To disregard a pattern is stupidity, but to enslave yourself to it is laziness. I may have to quote you on that one ;)

zkms 10y ago

That multiple involved people were totally willing to suspect/blame Heather is rather more troubling to me than the actual act of sabotage (if only because a tendency to assume that such sabotage is self-inflicted can let culprits get away without even being suspected).

protomyth 10y ago
Its the most likely pattern from prior cases, just as if a man's wife gets murdered then the man is suspect one. Experience, and patterns in general, often trouble our souls, but there is a reason they are patterns. Also, as this case shows, the previous pattern can be wrong. Its an easy time saver to pursue the things that have happened in the past before spiraling out to new suspects. The real problem is if you do not do the actual investigation and assume this follows previous experience. The assumptions without proof almost always lead to tragedy. Developers use this technique every day ("Well, I saw X so its probably Y in this code") so we follow the same investigative behavior and I hope developers put the time in to make sure the problem is really what happened just as I hope all law enforcement do the same.

wyager 10y ago

The author did not punish Heather based on his entirely reasonable suspicions. There's nothing wrong with having a reasonable a priori guilt distribution for a crime, so long as you don't punish people based on weak evidence and you allow for new evidence to update your guilt distribution.