I'm still a fan of "innovator's dilemma" and "crossing the chasm". It's about customer tolerance to the new: if new technology can be used by the same customers

I'm still a fan of "innovator's dilemma" and "crossing the chasm". It's about customer tolerance to the new: if new technology can be used by the same customers in the same way, incumbents win. But if it requires change in customers (different customers or different ways), then entrants win (incumbents being captured by their customers). Therefore, I'd have thought MS would lose here... unless they can make the cloud be used like desktop apps.