You're basically saying "it's worked itself out in the past so it will surely do so in the future." But that's not a logical conclusion. It certainly can be.

You're basically saying "it's worked itself out in the past so it will surely do so in the future." But that's not a logical conclusion. It certainly can be. Daniel is basically arguing for the outside view, and the outside view is often the best predictor of outcomes. Now, it may be that this time is different, but when you have a long history of specific failed predictions based on the details of a transition, it's certainly worth paying attention to the trend as a guide to this instance.