Agreed - I don't think it maximizes the win probability per se. I just think it's better than the current system. Point taken about the "exploding near zero".

Agreed - I don't think it maximizes the win probability per se. I just think it's better than the current system. Point taken about the "exploding near zero". I could do something like Population / (.2 + 5^(x/3-1) ), where x is average spread, ... but that just gets ugly. I wanted to communicate a general concept, not propose a specific formula.