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A Sumo Matchup Centuries in the Making

47 points by luu 10y ago

jasode 10y ago
I found it odd that a long article from a statistics website like 538 didn't mention the statistical anomalies that suggested match fixing in sumo wrestling. I learned about that from the Freakonomics book. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Match-fixing_in_professional_sumo https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Match-fixing_in_professional_s...
- Avenger42 10y ago
  Sure, you can write that story too, but this author seems more interested in across-the-eras comparison stories, like the one he linked comparing Peyton Manning to other great quarterbacks.
  - riffraff 10y ago
    I think OP's point was that you should be accounting for match fixing when comparing across the eras. If there is incentive in modern times to have some results and the incentive wasn't there before then it should be accounted for. I have no clue about american football, but presumably this would be like accounting for differences in ball materials, regulations etc.
Old_Thrashbarg 10y ago
No! I have an extremely negative association with 538 (not their fault). I don't want to see that logo for at least another year.
- aeze 10y ago
  Care to elaborate?
  - InitialLastName 10y ago
    Their model of the 2016 US Presidential election reflected the same polling error that all the other models showed. They gave Trump a 30% chance of winning, along with some commentary about ways that systemic error could easily swing things in his direction. Trump then won the election with results well-within their error margins, but that wasn't enough for some people. It's hard for some members of our society to acknowledge that 30%-chance events happen on occasion, so 538 takes the fall.
    - oh_sigh 10y ago
      Their election night coverage was one of better ones, but in the lead up to the election, Nate Silver got a lot wrong about Trump. He even had to write a mea culpa about it. Perhaps that is what OP is talking about?
      - tacomonstrous 10y ago
        >but in the lead up to the election, Nate Silver got a lot wrong about Trump. He even had to write a mea culpa about it. That was for the Republican primary.
    - geofft 10y ago
      It's not even clear if there were systemic polling errors: there were two last-minute changes that affected the election. There was the unexpected last-minute letter from Comey on October 28, and 538 did in fact report Clinton's chances to be in freefall from then until days before the election. There was also the unexpected competence of Kushner's data-science work right at the end to "micro-target" specific undecided voters and likely Hillary voters (unexpected in part because Trump had expressed skepticism at those strategies, and that organization was underfunded). It certainly seems possible that 538 had the data exactly right all along.
    - LordKano 10y ago
      I suppose it's neither here nor there now but I strongly suspect that both candidates' internal polling showed much closer numbers than the nationally published polls. In the last week of the campaign, Hillary was still visiting states that should have been in the bag for her and Trump was still visiting states that he should have written off as lost. Maybe they were just tactical anomalies but I think it makes more sense if they both knew that the race was closer than everyone else thought.
- zeveb 10y ago
  I simply don't get this. Do you view fivethirtyeight as a kind of pagan god, who gives you what you want? On the contrary, to the best of my knowledge the crew over there try to describe reality. Sometimes that reality is good and sometimes it's bad, but it's real.
sidlls 10y ago
Why is that move "beneath the dignity" of a wrestler? Seems like a great counter to me.
- jerrycruncher 10y ago
  The move is not described very well in the article. It's not really a countermove per se (because the time to impact is maybe 2 or 3/10ths of a second), but something that the wrestler decided to do before the match began. Before the initial charge, the two are crouched a few feet apart from each other, and instead of charging forward, one wrestler jumps to the side rather than engage the opponent. I can't immediately think of any corollaries in other sports, but it'd be a bit like a baseball batter jumping into the middle of the plate in order to get hit so that he can 'win' against the pitcher.
  - abearnamedpoo 10y ago
    The cricket equivalent would definitely be the "Infamous Underarm" incident[1] [1]https://youtu.be/d2qpj-yBkwY?t=4m21s https://youtu.be/d2qpj-yBkwY?t=4m21s
  - failrate 10y ago
    I think a better comparison would be to point to the grandstands, signaling a home run, but then bunting.
    - jerrycruncher 10y ago
      That is a better comparison, yes. Thanks!
  - m_myers 10y ago
    Jumping into the plate to get hit would not work since the batter must attempt to avoid the pitch. Another commenter has mentioned bunting after pointing at the fence. I would instead propose bunting to break up a no-hitter. It's completely legal, often the best strategy (e.g. it's a 1-0 game and you really need to get someone on base), and there's not even deception involved. But it's against the unwritten codes of baseball. See http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2014/9/16/6231827/bunting-to-break-up-a-no-hitter-domonic-brown-andrew-cashner http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2014/9/16/6231827/bunting-to-bre... for an example.
bravefoot 10y ago
It's interesting to see this analysis a year later. The article posits that possibly "Hakuho sees his skills slipping and is resorting to dirty tactics in a last-ditch effort to stay on top of a sport" and since then Hakuho has been reprimanded for other actions in the ring, faced serious injury, and gone into the longest losing streak since becoming a Yokozuna. If this turns out to be the end of Hakuho's career, it's interesting that this article picked out a possible beginning of the fall
- jerrycruncher 10y ago
  Indeed. I think the most recent tournament was very telling about Hakuho's future: he was clearly invested in winning, but he's just not as dominant as he used to be. His loss on day 15 really underscored that.
teawithcarl 10y ago
Regreyably, Chiyonofuji - the dominate Yokozuna of the 1990's decade (a lightwieght, strong, judo-esque wrestler and a sublime Japanese gentleman) is not included in the article.

47 points by luu 10y ago

I found it odd that a long article from a statistics website like 538 didn't mention the statistical anomalies that suggested match fixing in sumo wrestling. I learned about that from the Freakonomics book. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Match-fixing_in_professional_sumo https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Match-fixing_in_professional_s...

Avenger42 10y ago
Sure, you can write that story too, but this author seems more interested in across-the-eras comparison stories, like the one he linked comparing Peyton Manning to other great quarterbacks.
- riffraff 10y ago
  I think OP's point was that you should be accounting for match fixing when comparing across the eras. If there is incentive in modern times to have some results and the incentive wasn't there before then it should be accounted for. I have no clue about american football, but presumably this would be like accounting for differences in ball materials, regulations etc.

Old_Thrashbarg 10y ago

No! I have an extremely negative association with 538 (not their fault). I don't want to see that logo for at least another year.

aeze 10y ago
Care to elaborate?
- InitialLastName 10y ago
  Their model of the 2016 US Presidential election reflected the same polling error that all the other models showed. They gave Trump a 30% chance of winning, along with some commentary about ways that systemic error could easily swing things in his direction. Trump then won the election with results well-within their error margins, but that wasn't enough for some people. It's hard for some members of our society to acknowledge that 30%-chance events happen on occasion, so 538 takes the fall.
  - oh_sigh 10y ago
    Their election night coverage was one of better ones, but in the lead up to the election, Nate Silver got a lot wrong about Trump. He even had to write a mea culpa about it. Perhaps that is what OP is talking about?
    - tacomonstrous 10y ago
      >but in the lead up to the election, Nate Silver got a lot wrong about Trump. He even had to write a mea culpa about it. That was for the Republican primary.
  - geofft 10y ago
    It's not even clear if there were systemic polling errors: there were two last-minute changes that affected the election. There was the unexpected last-minute letter from Comey on October 28, and 538 did in fact report Clinton's chances to be in freefall from then until days before the election. There was also the unexpected competence of Kushner's data-science work right at the end to "micro-target" specific undecided voters and likely Hillary voters (unexpected in part because Trump had expressed skepticism at those strategies, and that organization was underfunded). It certainly seems possible that 538 had the data exactly right all along.
  - LordKano 10y ago
    I suppose it's neither here nor there now but I strongly suspect that both candidates' internal polling showed much closer numbers than the nationally published polls. In the last week of the campaign, Hillary was still visiting states that should have been in the bag for her and Trump was still visiting states that he should have written off as lost. Maybe they were just tactical anomalies but I think it makes more sense if they both knew that the race was closer than everyone else thought.
zeveb 10y ago
I simply don't get this. Do you view fivethirtyeight as a kind of pagan god, who gives you what you want? On the contrary, to the best of my knowledge the crew over there try to describe reality. Sometimes that reality is good and sometimes it's bad, but it's real.

sidlls 10y ago

Why is that move "beneath the dignity" of a wrestler? Seems like a great counter to me.

jerrycruncher 10y ago
The move is not described very well in the article. It's not really a countermove per se (because the time to impact is maybe 2 or 3/10ths of a second), but something that the wrestler decided to do before the match began. Before the initial charge, the two are crouched a few feet apart from each other, and instead of charging forward, one wrestler jumps to the side rather than engage the opponent. I can't immediately think of any corollaries in other sports, but it'd be a bit like a baseball batter jumping into the middle of the plate in order to get hit so that he can 'win' against the pitcher.
- abearnamedpoo 10y ago
  The cricket equivalent would definitely be the "Infamous Underarm" incident[1] [1]https://youtu.be/d2qpj-yBkwY?t=4m21s https://youtu.be/d2qpj-yBkwY?t=4m21s
- failrate 10y ago
  I think a better comparison would be to point to the grandstands, signaling a home run, but then bunting.
  - jerrycruncher 10y ago
    That is a better comparison, yes. Thanks!
- m_myers 10y ago
  Jumping into the plate to get hit would not work since the batter must attempt to avoid the pitch. Another commenter has mentioned bunting after pointing at the fence. I would instead propose bunting to break up a no-hitter. It's completely legal, often the best strategy (e.g. it's a 1-0 game and you really need to get someone on base), and there's not even deception involved. But it's against the unwritten codes of baseball. See http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2014/9/16/6231827/bunting-to-break-up-a-no-hitter-domonic-brown-andrew-cashner http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2014/9/16/6231827/bunting-to-bre... for an example.

bravefoot 10y ago

It's interesting to see this analysis a year later. The article posits that possibly "Hakuho sees his skills slipping and is resorting to dirty tactics in a last-ditch effort to stay on top of a sport" and since then Hakuho has been reprimanded for other actions in the ring, faced serious injury, and gone into the longest losing streak since becoming a Yokozuna. If this turns out to be the end of Hakuho's career, it's interesting that this article picked out a possible beginning of the fall

jerrycruncher 10y ago
Indeed. I think the most recent tournament was very telling about Hakuho's future: he was clearly invested in winning, but he's just not as dominant as he used to be. His loss on day 15 really underscored that.

teawithcarl 10y ago

Regreyably, Chiyonofuji - the dominate Yokozuna of the 1990's decade (a lightwieght, strong, judo-esque wrestler and a sublime Japanese gentleman) is not included in the article.