4 ms·

I find it curious that people prepare for a "Doomsday" scenario. I can fathom a localized catastrophe like an earthquake, or extreme weather, or even a horrible

I find it curious that people prepare for a "Doomsday" scenario. I can fathom a localized catastrophe like an earthquake, or extreme weather, or even a horrible bomb attack. But the extreme examples seem more related to our entertainment consumption than based on a real reality. I feel like we're more likely to die from old age than anything from space or zombies. Maybe I just can't do the level of paranoia that some people take on. It seems an unnecessary waste of your brain space to always be on alert. or maybe i'll just be the first to die. shrug

jseliger 10y ago
But the extreme examples seem more related to our entertainment consumption than based on a real reality. It would be interesting to have the same perspective in, say, 1913. In that period virtually no one expected the catastrophe that would become World War I, which led into the catastrophe of WWII. Really, really bad things can happen; because they haven't since 1945 doesn't mean they won't again. The 1913 mindset is part of what I channeled when I wrote this: https://jakeseliger.com/2016/11/28/trump-fears-and-the-nuclear-apocalypse/ https://jakeseliger.com/2016/11/28/trump-fears-and-the-nucle...
- analogmemory 10y ago
  Right but it was still contained to a country or region. People in Mexico we not affected by World War I/II that required a bunker and ammunition.
  - tatterdemalion 10y ago
    Your point is sound but that's an incredibly bad example. Mexico was already embroiled in the Mexican Revolution by the time WWI started. > "This armed conflict is often categorized as the most important sociopolitical event in Mexico and one of the greatest upheavals of the 20th century." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mexican_Revolution https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mexican_Revolution
- semi-extrinsic 10y ago
  On the flip side, my relatively poor grandparents spent good money in the 1950's on hoarding stuff (clothes, shoes, radios, misc. equipment) in basement/attic spaces, in preparation for the next world war that never came. That stuff was never used, and mostly thrown away after they died, as it wasn't in good condition anymore. That money could have been much better spent; this was pretty common in the generation who grew up during WW2.
- aaron-lebo 10y ago
  I like your use of historical examples in your post, but I think World War I (or 1913) is an iffy example. World leaders had known conflict was possible for a long time and had been preparing for it - the build up of alliances both was an example of this and the ultimate cause of war. Conflicts in the Balkans preceded WWI by several years. If you think Trump is crazy try Wilhelm who was widely known as an egomaniac. The shopkeepers may not have known what was coming but the world leaders certainly did. We don't have anything that could jump start a world war in the same way. In fact, it's more likely that we'd have seen conflict with Russia via Clinton than we would with Trump, and that would be our main threat of nuclear war today. As far as conventional war goes, there's nothing like pre-WWI in place with America being the clear global hegemon. Neither China nor Russia have the military to engage in anything but localized conflicts.
awfgylbcxhrey 10y ago
I don't know why you've been downvoted, since IMO you raise a valid point. I've known a few prepper types. They had plans for escape rooms, a significant cache of weapons, some ammo, and a few MREs in the closet. Nobody had more than maybe a few liters of water per person in the home, and when I asked about an escape plan (e.g. there's a fire, get out and meet at John's house on the next street over) they looked at me like I was insane. Oh, and of course they're all in fairly bad shape. In my opinion, most of the "prepper" stuff is about fantasy role playing. I see it as related to the "middle aged man porn" we see lately in the form of the Taken franchise of movies. It perhaps it gives a feeling of smug satisfaction in a chaotic life. You're angry that you were cut off in traffic on your way to a job that might have layoffs tomorrow, but at least you can tell yourself that when the apocalypse comes, you'll succeed while that jerk will be fodder. Sort of a tough guy variant of the classic "ass pennies" comedy sketch.
- antisthenes 10y ago
  I agree. The best investment for a doomsday scenario is to invest in yourself and your own skills first: get in shape, learn basic farming, wood/metalworking to make and repair tools, animal husbandry, basic first aid skills, learn geography and where clean water sources are, etc. The 2nd best investment is to invest in your community and friends, because survival as a group is much easier than being a loner. Stockpiling supplies I don't think is very relevant until signs of the collapse are obvious. A lot of medicines and some fuel don't last very long either, afaik.
  - patch_collector 10y ago
    Stockpiling to an extent makes sense, in my mind. Things like food and water to last at least a few weeks, ideally months or a year, are quite practical. Because the moment a problem is obvious, it's too late to get them. If you've ever lived in a hurricane area and let your toilet paper supply run low before an event, you'll know what I'm talking about ;) Alternatively, if you've ever been sick and not wanted to leave the house for a week, or lost a job and wanted to limit what you're spending, etc. Also, stockpiling should be done smart. If fuel doesn't last long, make sure you're using things like fuel extenders to keep them usable. And ideally, make it part of your daily life. Stockpiling 5 or 500 gallons of water in your apartment or house is a great idea (when the water main breaks after an earthquake, would you rather be the person who can help others because you know you're taken care of, or the guy who's fighting off dehydration while he waits for the red cross to arrive?), but keep using it. Don't buy one of those blue tanks and just leave it in a corner, buy 10 and use them, replacing them as you use them. Same thing with food, and fuel. Going to extremes, of course, give you diminishing returns (like anything). So stockpiling several million rounds of ammunition and more medicine than can be used before it expires doesn't make much sense.
woofyman 10y ago
The loss of the electric grid would throw us back to the 19th century but without 19th century technology. There would be mass starvation and disease.
- analogmemory 10y ago
  I don't follow, are suggesting that the grid would vanish? Or that all power sources would suddenly be unavailable?
  - quickben 10y ago
    The grid would probably be there, non functional. It takes a lot of effort to maintain and you can't just exclude some capacity and hope the rest works.
- semi-extrinsic 10y ago
  How exactly would we lose the electric grid? Nice thing about a distributed infrastructure is that it's, well, distributed. Also, (nuclear aircraft carriers and submarines|jet aircraft engines) can be (very|relatively) quickly brought into duty producing electricity locally in every city, way before any pandemics and mass starvation. Longer term, converting from the refrigerated fresh food system of today, to a system based on pickling/curing/canning/iceboxes/etc. is hardly black magic.
  - woofyman 10y ago
    >How exactly would we lose the electric grid? Coronal mass ejection >Also, (nuclear aircraft carriers and submarines|jet aircraft engines) can be (very|relatively) quickly brought into duty producing electricity locally in every city, way before any pandemics and mass starvation. That doesn't scale. >Longer term, converting from the refrigerated fresh food system of today, to a system based on pickling/curing/canning/iceboxes/etc. is hardly black magic. >In the short term hundreds of millions would starve or die from heat or cold. Cities only keep on hand weeks worth of food.
  - marchenko 10y ago
mikestew 10y ago
I feel like we're more likely to die from old age than anything from space or zombies. Maybe I just can't do the level of paranoia that some people take on. Or maybe you just settled on different hobbies. I'm not being facetious, we all spend our time and money on different things, and from my POV many put together a narrative that "requires" them to buy fun gadgets. For you, perhaps home automation. For others, prepping for an end-of-world scenario that they themselves know is unlikely to happen. Or maybe they are all a little nutty, I dunno.
Diederich 10y ago
I think there's a small but non-trivial chance that, in the next 3 or 4 decades, global weather will become so erratic and severe that we'll lose a good 90% of our ability to grow food, world wide. That would end our civilization. It would, obviously, be a long, slow, agonizing, random and exceedingly chaotic process. Hopefully that's not what will happen.

jseliger 10y ago

But the extreme examples seem more related to our entertainment consumption than based on a real reality. It would be interesting to have the same perspective in, say, 1913. In that period virtually no one expected the catastrophe that would become World War I, which led into the catastrophe of WWII. Really, really bad things can happen; because they haven't since 1945 doesn't mean they won't again. The 1913 mindset is part of what I channeled when I wrote this: https://jakeseliger.com/2016/11/28/trump-fears-and-the-nuclear-apocalypse/ https://jakeseliger.com/2016/11/28/trump-fears-and-the-nucle...

analogmemory 10y ago
Right but it was still contained to a country or region. People in Mexico we not affected by World War I/II that required a bunker and ammunition.
- tatterdemalion 10y ago
  Your point is sound but that's an incredibly bad example. Mexico was already embroiled in the Mexican Revolution by the time WWI started. > "This armed conflict is often categorized as the most important sociopolitical event in Mexico and one of the greatest upheavals of the 20th century." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mexican_Revolution https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mexican_Revolution
semi-extrinsic 10y ago
On the flip side, my relatively poor grandparents spent good money in the 1950's on hoarding stuff (clothes, shoes, radios, misc. equipment) in basement/attic spaces, in preparation for the next world war that never came. That stuff was never used, and mostly thrown away after they died, as it wasn't in good condition anymore. That money could have been much better spent; this was pretty common in the generation who grew up during WW2.
aaron-lebo 10y ago
I like your use of historical examples in your post, but I think World War I (or 1913) is an iffy example. World leaders had known conflict was possible for a long time and had been preparing for it - the build up of alliances both was an example of this and the ultimate cause of war. Conflicts in the Balkans preceded WWI by several years. If you think Trump is crazy try Wilhelm who was widely known as an egomaniac. The shopkeepers may not have known what was coming but the world leaders certainly did. We don't have anything that could jump start a world war in the same way. In fact, it's more likely that we'd have seen conflict with Russia via Clinton than we would with Trump, and that would be our main threat of nuclear war today. As far as conventional war goes, there's nothing like pre-WWI in place with America being the clear global hegemon. Neither China nor Russia have the military to engage in anything but localized conflicts.

awfgylbcxhrey 10y ago

I don't know why you've been downvoted, since IMO you raise a valid point. I've known a few prepper types. They had plans for escape rooms, a significant cache of weapons, some ammo, and a few MREs in the closet. Nobody had more than maybe a few liters of water per person in the home, and when I asked about an escape plan (e.g. there's a fire, get out and meet at John's house on the next street over) they looked at me like I was insane. Oh, and of course they're all in fairly bad shape. In my opinion, most of the "prepper" stuff is about fantasy role playing. I see it as related to the "middle aged man porn" we see lately in the form of the Taken franchise of movies. It perhaps it gives a feeling of smug satisfaction in a chaotic life. You're angry that you were cut off in traffic on your way to a job that might have layoffs tomorrow, but at least you can tell yourself that when the apocalypse comes, you'll succeed while that jerk will be fodder. Sort of a tough guy variant of the classic "ass pennies" comedy sketch.

antisthenes 10y ago
I agree. The best investment for a doomsday scenario is to invest in yourself and your own skills first: get in shape, learn basic farming, wood/metalworking to make and repair tools, animal husbandry, basic first aid skills, learn geography and where clean water sources are, etc. The 2nd best investment is to invest in your community and friends, because survival as a group is much easier than being a loner. Stockpiling supplies I don't think is very relevant until signs of the collapse are obvious. A lot of medicines and some fuel don't last very long either, afaik.
- patch_collector 10y ago
  Stockpiling to an extent makes sense, in my mind. Things like food and water to last at least a few weeks, ideally months or a year, are quite practical. Because the moment a problem is obvious, it's too late to get them. If you've ever lived in a hurricane area and let your toilet paper supply run low before an event, you'll know what I'm talking about ;) Alternatively, if you've ever been sick and not wanted to leave the house for a week, or lost a job and wanted to limit what you're spending, etc. Also, stockpiling should be done smart. If fuel doesn't last long, make sure you're using things like fuel extenders to keep them usable. And ideally, make it part of your daily life. Stockpiling 5 or 500 gallons of water in your apartment or house is a great idea (when the water main breaks after an earthquake, would you rather be the person who can help others because you know you're taken care of, or the guy who's fighting off dehydration while he waits for the red cross to arrive?), but keep using it. Don't buy one of those blue tanks and just leave it in a corner, buy 10 and use them, replacing them as you use them. Same thing with food, and fuel. Going to extremes, of course, give you diminishing returns (like anything). So stockpiling several million rounds of ammunition and more medicine than can be used before it expires doesn't make much sense.

woofyman 10y ago

The loss of the electric grid would throw us back to the 19th century but without 19th century technology. There would be mass starvation and disease.

analogmemory 10y ago
I don't follow, are suggesting that the grid would vanish? Or that all power sources would suddenly be unavailable?
- quickben 10y ago
  The grid would probably be there, non functional. It takes a lot of effort to maintain and you can't just exclude some capacity and hope the rest works.
semi-extrinsic 10y ago
How exactly would we lose the electric grid? Nice thing about a distributed infrastructure is that it's, well, distributed. Also, (nuclear aircraft carriers and submarines|jet aircraft engines) can be (very|relatively) quickly brought into duty producing electricity locally in every city, way before any pandemics and mass starvation. Longer term, converting from the refrigerated fresh food system of today, to a system based on pickling/curing/canning/iceboxes/etc. is hardly black magic.
- woofyman 10y ago
  >How exactly would we lose the electric grid? Coronal mass ejection >Also, (nuclear aircraft carriers and submarines|jet aircraft engines) can be (very|relatively) quickly brought into duty producing electricity locally in every city, way before any pandemics and mass starvation. That doesn't scale. >Longer term, converting from the refrigerated fresh food system of today, to a system based on pickling/curing/canning/iceboxes/etc. is hardly black magic. >In the short term hundreds of millions would starve or die from heat or cold. Cities only keep on hand weeks worth of food.
- marchenko 10y ago

mikestew 10y ago

I feel like we're more likely to die from old age than anything from space or zombies. Maybe I just can't do the level of paranoia that some people take on. Or maybe you just settled on different hobbies. I'm not being facetious, we all spend our time and money on different things, and from my POV many put together a narrative that "requires" them to buy fun gadgets. For you, perhaps home automation. For others, prepping for an end-of-world scenario that they themselves know is unlikely to happen. Or maybe they are all a little nutty, I dunno.

Diederich 10y ago

I think there's a small but non-trivial chance that, in the next 3 or 4 decades, global weather will become so erratic and severe that we'll lose a good 90% of our ability to grow food, world wide. That would end our civilization. It would, obviously, be a long, slow, agonizing, random and exceedingly chaotic process. Hopefully that's not what will happen.