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Those are very high paying jobs. It is very unlikely that the displaced workers will make anywhere close to that.

edblarney 10y ago
As the price of oil rises, it makes more sense for extraction in 'hard to get' places, which requires more technology, more jobs. As long as Oil is above $60/barrel, the the Alberta Oil Sands become exploitable, requiring massive, massive jobs. And very high paying. Unskilled labour is $80K. Skilled labour well above $100K - and tons of 'vacation' - usually 2 weeks in, 1 week out type thing. People fly in from all over the world. The carbon energy sector continues to employ a lot of people and will. Of course - environmental issues notwithstanding.
- cestith 10y ago
  The math isn't the same on the actual rigs, though. The article says half as many rigs with a quarter as many people per rig to get the same amount of oil. So yeah, if we get to $60 or the heady days (I live in Houston) of $110 a barrel it'll add jobs again. It won't add jobs the way it used to. About 7/8 of the people who would've received calls in the next upswing won't if the numbers in the article hold.
  - bluGill 10y ago
    Not exactly - if oil gets that high there will be as many jobs - they will create even more wells though. What this really means is that as oil approaches $60/barrel the same number of people can drill more wells. In turn we are less likely to get over $60/barrel in the first place: as we get close more wells will be drilled which will drive the price back down. Until peak oil of course - at some point we run out of okay places to drill wells. (the great places ran out before 1910, we have been moving down since) Once the geologists run out of useful places to drill something else needs to be in place to replace oil.
- lacampbell 10y ago
  A pang of regret for choosing to get into software instead of a skilled trade. I'd love 3 weeks in, 1 week out.
  - edblarney 10y ago
    Yeah, it's not so fun. You're in the middle of nowhere, usually work 10 hours a day. The 'basics' are well done: more food that you can possibly eat, maids, cooks, but you're basically spending your life in a 'work camp' type thing. You can make a ton of money for a couple of years, but it wears on people and usually they want out. That said, even a good plumber in SF should be able to earn some pretty good coin only working 8 hours a day ...
    - lacampbell 10y ago
      Exactly - I want to be able to do something like this for a year or two max, then get out.
porpoisemonkey 10y ago
As I understand it the incentive to automate is to 1) reduce costs and to 2) increase quality by standardizing the execution of complicated tasks. If this is true then as a general rule automation is going to target jobs of highly payed, semi-skilled workers. I think we can expect that these positions will become scarcer and scarcer as automation technologies are adopted. One area where there's a glut of highly paid and semi-skilled workers is longshoremen (dock workers). I suspect that in the near future we'll be seeing these jobs disappear as well. https://www.google.com/amp/www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-dockworker-pay-20150301-story,amp.html?client=ms-android-google https://www.google.com/amp/www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-do...
- Eridrus 10y ago
  Both opportunities and challenges, but people are working on it: https://www.flexport.com/blog/port-automation-oakland-rotterdam/ https://www.flexport.com/blog/port-automation-oakland-rotter...
  - porpoisemonkey 10y ago
    Thanks for the additional info. I'm not sure how to feel about the increasing use of automation. As a technologist I know that technology tends to increase efficiency and to some extent productivity which could allow us to scale up to projects of a magnitude never seen before in human history. (SpaceX's mission to colonize Mars comes to mind.) As a human being I feel wholeheartedly for the people being displaced by the technology and the chaos it wreaks on their lives. I can imagine many of them may not be capable of adapting to this trend and will become completely marginalized in the workforce - relegated to having multiple low paying jobs.
    - pizzetta 10y ago
      Any such "tech automation moratorium" would have to be a world-wide thing. It would not work if everyone abided by a moratorium but the US didn't or Every did but Australia --that would create an unfair advantage to the one doing all the automation where others had to pay for semi-skilled labor. There is no easy answer to the conundrum.
deleted 10y ago
[deleted]
cdibona 10y ago
Tool pushing is an extraordinarily dangerous job. If it can be replaced by robotic handling equipment then good for humanity, I say.I'm honestly shocked there isn't more death on rigs... I have a family member who was a tool pusher for a number of years. These jobs pay a lot because there's a lot of risk, a lot of pain and a real need to retire/transition early because of the damage to your body.
drzaiusapelord 10y ago
Except they were artificially high paying because of the massive risk and shit work. Human labor in such an environment was just a stop-gap solution until automation took over. These are not "good" jobs, they were high-risk gambles masquerading as jobs. This is a bit like saying that its unlikely kids who work in coal mines will find paying jobs when we outlaw kids working in coal mines.

As the price of oil rises, it makes more sense for extraction in 'hard to get' places, which requires more technology, more jobs. As long as Oil is above $60/barrel, the the Alberta Oil Sands become exploitable, requiring massive, massive jobs. And very high paying. Unskilled labour is $80K. Skilled labour well above $100K - and tons of 'vacation' - usually 2 weeks in, 1 week out type thing. People fly in from all over the world. The carbon energy sector continues to employ a lot of people and will. Of course - environmental issues notwithstanding.

cestith 10y ago
The math isn't the same on the actual rigs, though. The article says half as many rigs with a quarter as many people per rig to get the same amount of oil. So yeah, if we get to $60 or the heady days (I live in Houston) of $110 a barrel it'll add jobs again. It won't add jobs the way it used to. About 7/8 of the people who would've received calls in the next upswing won't if the numbers in the article hold.
- bluGill 10y ago
  Not exactly - if oil gets that high there will be as many jobs - they will create even more wells though. What this really means is that as oil approaches $60/barrel the same number of people can drill more wells. In turn we are less likely to get over $60/barrel in the first place: as we get close more wells will be drilled which will drive the price back down. Until peak oil of course - at some point we run out of okay places to drill wells. (the great places ran out before 1910, we have been moving down since) Once the geologists run out of useful places to drill something else needs to be in place to replace oil.
lacampbell 10y ago
A pang of regret for choosing to get into software instead of a skilled trade. I'd love 3 weeks in, 1 week out.
- edblarney 10y ago
  Yeah, it's not so fun. You're in the middle of nowhere, usually work 10 hours a day. The 'basics' are well done: more food that you can possibly eat, maids, cooks, but you're basically spending your life in a 'work camp' type thing. You can make a ton of money for a couple of years, but it wears on people and usually they want out. That said, even a good plumber in SF should be able to earn some pretty good coin only working 8 hours a day ...
  - lacampbell 10y ago
    Exactly - I want to be able to do something like this for a year or two max, then get out.

porpoisemonkey 10y ago

As I understand it the incentive to automate is to 1) reduce costs and to 2) increase quality by standardizing the execution of complicated tasks. If this is true then as a general rule automation is going to target jobs of highly payed, semi-skilled workers. I think we can expect that these positions will become scarcer and scarcer as automation technologies are adopted. One area where there's a glut of highly paid and semi-skilled workers is longshoremen (dock workers). I suspect that in the near future we'll be seeing these jobs disappear as well. https://www.google.com/amp/www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-dockworker-pay-20150301-story,amp.html?client=ms-android-google https://www.google.com/amp/www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-do...

Eridrus 10y ago
Both opportunities and challenges, but people are working on it: https://www.flexport.com/blog/port-automation-oakland-rotterdam/ https://www.flexport.com/blog/port-automation-oakland-rotter...
- porpoisemonkey 10y ago
  Thanks for the additional info. I'm not sure how to feel about the increasing use of automation. As a technologist I know that technology tends to increase efficiency and to some extent productivity which could allow us to scale up to projects of a magnitude never seen before in human history. (SpaceX's mission to colonize Mars comes to mind.) As a human being I feel wholeheartedly for the people being displaced by the technology and the chaos it wreaks on their lives. I can imagine many of them may not be capable of adapting to this trend and will become completely marginalized in the workforce - relegated to having multiple low paying jobs.
  - pizzetta 10y ago
    Any such "tech automation moratorium" would have to be a world-wide thing. It would not work if everyone abided by a moratorium but the US didn't or Every did but Australia --that would create an unfair advantage to the one doing all the automation where others had to pay for semi-skilled labor. There is no easy answer to the conundrum.

deleted 10y ago

[deleted]

cdibona 10y ago

Tool pushing is an extraordinarily dangerous job. If it can be replaced by robotic handling equipment then good for humanity, I say.I'm honestly shocked there isn't more death on rigs... I have a family member who was a tool pusher for a number of years. These jobs pay a lot because there's a lot of risk, a lot of pain and a real need to retire/transition early because of the damage to your body.

drzaiusapelord 10y ago

Except they were artificially high paying because of the massive risk and shit work. Human labor in such an environment was just a stop-gap solution until automation took over. These are not "good" jobs, they were high-risk gambles masquerading as jobs. This is a bit like saying that its unlikely kids who work in coal mines will find paying jobs when we outlaw kids working in coal mines.