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Terrific comment, as usual. This is the key insight everyone. It's not about where the puck is today (of course this project is small and expensive relative to
by tedsanders 10y ago
Terrific comment, as usual. This is the key insight everyone. It's not about where the puck is today (of course this project is small and expensive relative to mature tech), it's about where the puck could be in 5-50 years. If battery costs continue to fall with economies of scale, and they become the least-cost solution, they would be bring characteristics that today's least-cost solutions lack. Batteries are modular, dense, and can be deployed extremely quickly. You don't need a years-long permitting and construction process to deploy them. If they continue following the cost curve they're on, they may change how grid planning is done, and even change the grid's very topology.
In the Christensen sense, batteries may be truly disruptive - a new technology that is initially inappropriate but brings with it undervalued characteristics (like deployment speed/modularity) that eventually can change how business is done.
- ams6110 10y ago> You don't need a years-long permitting and construction process to deploy them. Not sure where you live but this definitely is not the case in all areas. In my town the local utility has been trying to get approval to build a substation (standard design by any criteria, and needed to support increased demand) for going on two years but nobody wants it near their neighborhood.