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After announcing the project back in September, we have now learned that Tesla and Southern California Edison (SCE) have completed the massive 80 MWh energy sto
by philipkglass 10y ago
After announcing the project back in September, we have now learned that Tesla and Southern California Edison (SCE) have completed the massive 80 MWh energy storage station using Tesla’s new Powerpack 2 at the Mira Loma substation.
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While Tesla and SCE haven’t officially launched the new substation yet, sources familiar with the new Powerpack installation told Electrek that it was completed a few weeks back – late December – and brought online so that the electric utility can start using it to manage peak demand.
Deploying this project in only 3 months is really impressive.
I think there's a pattern here: energy systems built from repeating small modules have systematically lower risks of cost/schedule escalation.
See for example "Construction Cost Overruns and Electricity Infrastructure: An Unavoidable Risk?"
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/262304928_Construction_Cost_Overruns_and_Electricity_Infrastructure_An_Unavoidable_Risk https://www.researchgate.net/publication/262304928_Construct...
Look at Figures 2 and 3 in particular. The mean overrun by project type goes solar < wind < thermal (fossil) < nuclear < hydroelectric. That's basically the same ordering as "minimum viable project size." Coincidence? I don't think so. A small solar project can be a handful of panels. If you want to scale up to hundreds of megawatts, just tile a much larger area using the same panels and basic repeating structures. A lot of work can execute in parallel and sections can start generating output/revenue rapidly as they're completed, sometimes years before the project's last panel is installed. No such luck with a nuclear or hydro project: you can be on year 7 of an 8 year schedule and it's still generating zero watts because so little can happen in parallel. (This is also why I consider small modular reactors the last, best hope for a nuclear renaissance, but the latency for nuclear R&D is so high that renewables might "eat the world" first.)
I rather expect that this Tesla installation, despite its impressive speed, was not particularly cheap. But if battery costs keep declining, in 5 years it could still be lightning quick to build another installation like this and cheaper than gas/diesel peakers. If that happens then storage-backed renewables become the very cheapest electricity source across large swaths of the Earth, threatening huge chunks of coal and natural gas demand. There may be a parallel risk to oil demand if Tesla and other auto makers execute well on their EV plans currently in the pipeline. I think Tesla faces some significant risks from the SolarCity acquisition, and execution risks on the Model 3, but I sure can't fault the ambition.
- tedsanders 10y agoTerrific comment, as usual. This is the key insight everyone. It's not about where the puck is today (of course this project is small and expensive relative to mature tech), it's about where the puck could be in 5-50 years. If battery costs continue to fall with economies of scale, and they become the least-cost solution, they would be bring characteristics that today's least-cost solutions lack. Batteries are modular, dense, and can be deployed extremely quickly. You don't need a years-long permitting and construction process to deploy them. If they continue following the cost curve they're on, they may change how grid planning is done, and even change the grid's very topology. In the Christensen sense, batteries may be truly disruptive - a new technology that is initially inappropriate but brings with it undervalued characteristics (like deployment speed/modularity) that eventually can change how business is done.
- ams6110 10y ago> You don't need a years-long permitting and construction process to deploy them. Not sure where you live but this definitely is not the case in all areas. In my town the local utility has been trying to get approval to build a substation (standard design by any criteria, and needed to support increased demand) for going on two years but nobody wants it near their neighborhood.
- jessriedel 10y ago> The mean overrun by project type goes solar < wind < thermal (fossil) < nuclear < hydroelectric. That's basically the same ordering as "minimum viable project size." Relatedly, MIT Prof. Dennis Whyte argues that this is a/the key friction for the development of fusion power in this excellent semi-popular talk https://youtu.be/KkpqA8yG9T4 https://youtu.be/KkpqA8yG9T4 In particular, he thinks the latest generation of superconducting magnets will lower the minimum-viable size of fusion power plants, which will have a big impact on the feasibility of them being built by human institutions even if their raw numbers on paper are comparable to older style tokamaks.