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You're welcome! TL;DR They're changing the market dynamics but their cells are boring aside from being cheap and will probably stay that way for a while. So f
by owenversteeg 10y ago
You're welcome!
TL;DR They're changing the market dynamics but their cells are boring aside from being cheap and will probably stay that way for a while.
So first of all, yes they will change the market dynamics; anyone selling as many batteries as they (plan to) do will change the market.
Secondly, the gigafactory's cells aren't that interesting (right now) aside from being cheap. The cell lifetime is atrocious, between half to a quarter that of the market standard. The energy density is not great, around 220 Wh/kg for the best cells and 190 Wh/kg for the worse ones; this is slightly better than the cutting edge fifteen years ago. The power density they claim is unacceptable given what it does to the cell life. And since the cells are larger, they require new cooling systems.
Musk is a fascinating guy, for sure, but he's just as human as the rest of us. An absolutely gargantuan amount of cash has been piled into battery research in the last 11 years, with zero appreciable gains in energy density. If the Gigafactory ever produces a high energy density cell, it'll almost certainly be because their partner Panasonic (which is one of the few battery companies on the cutting edge) made a breakthrough and licensed it to them.
Finally, the battery market is a very strange thing: many makers of the 'good' cells won't sell to anyone except a few specific clients. These clients buy the cells (on paper) to make things like power tools or electric vehicles or battery packs. However, these clients vastly over-buy, and then sell off their excess stock to resellers. Anytime you buy a powerbank, or a loose 18650 cell for an e-cigarette, or a battery pack for an ebike, you're almost certainly going to end up with cells that have been resold at least twice.
As such, the easiest way that Tesla could absolutely revolutionize the industry is by simply saying "hey, if your needed capacity is more than $25K per year, give us a call" and selling directly to businesses. They could even put up a quote on their website à la SpaceX. Unfortunately, I've got a feeling that if Tesla did that their partners at Panasonic would make heads roll, but you never know.
- Keyframe 10y agoThat's interesting, to say the least. You can't just call Saft and order some cells then? They won't sell them to you?
- owenversteeg 10y agoI'm not sure about Saft in particular; with how ridiculously bad their tech is I'm convinced they are a French government jobs program, and nobody I know has ever voluntarily used their cells (except years ago for non-rechargeable.) For reference, their highest energy density Li-Ion cell is 169 Wh/kg. I'm not sure how they managed to be that bad; I just literally taped a rock (14g) to the cheapest battery in my apartment (45.8g, the $2.49 NCR18650PF) and the combined energy density of my new Rock-Lithium-Ion Battery is 170 Wh/kg, better than that of Saft's highest energy density rechargeable cell. But yes; if you want newer battery technology direct from the manufacturer, you'll probably be flat-out ignored even if you're inquiring at a medium-large scale. The way to do it is to hunt around for semi-reputable resellers, who will usually give you what you want at an acceptable price.
- mcguire 10y agoMy understanding is that the reselling behavior is the bane of the e-cigarette market. 18650's that you can get from most resellers may have good specs printed on them, but the battery won't necessarily have anything to do with the wrapper. Edit: https://www.e-cigarette-forum.com/forum/blog-entry/list-of-battery-tests.7436/#subs https://www.e-cigarette-forum.com/forum/blog-entry/list-of-b...
- Keyframe 10y agoThat's quite insightful. I know next to nothing about that industry and/or battery (modern) tech. I know people have always said Saft was a reputable battery company (around motorised speciality vehicles/grip for film industry). I have no idea why, considering what you've just said.
- extrapickles 10y agoIts likely Saft optimizes for rough environments rather than energy density. Things like stronger casings, more insulation between anode/cathode, wider temperature ranges are more useful to some applications than energy density. I've primarily seen them used for industrial/military applications.