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Thanks for posting this. A totally unrelated question, if you don't mind answering. Given all this, do you believe that Tesla is changing the battery market dyn

by deepGem 10y ago

Thanks for posting this. A totally unrelated question, if you don't mind answering. Given all this, do you believe that Tesla is changing the battery market dynamics with their GigaFactory. Musk has claimed that their plan is to increase the energy density, but hasn't given out any specifics.

nolok 10y ago
Not parent, but whatever their plan is, energy density is limited by the technology, not the will. It's not like Panasonic could manufacture battery with twice the energy density if they wanted to, with some tech they're hiding in their back pocket. As for the "gigafactory", it's Tesla trying to get into that closed market, like parent said there are only a few big players and it's not very welcoming to new ones, Tesla's plan is to be so big that they can have a big supply to sell in bulk AND to also be (together with solar city I guess) one of their first big scale customer.
- ryao 10y ago
  I think you mean the electro-chemical cell. Batteries are just bundles of electrochemical cells (and 1 cell can be a bundle). I am far from an expert on this, but tighter packing of electrochemical cells could improve density.
  - owenversteeg 10y ago
    > Batteries are just bundles of electrochemical cells (and 1 cell can be a bundle) Correct. The problem with packing cells tighter is heat production: a ridiculous amount of heat is released and the individual cells can get up to 80 degrees C / 176 F. (80C is not a "doomsday scenario"; most cells are rated to sit there running at 80C just fine.) When they're all next to each other, tightly packed in with no place for heat to go, you're screwed. The other reason is that volumetric density is usually not what people optimize for; gravimetric density is more useful most of the time, and in that case you don't really have any reason to use tighter packing.
    - ufo 10y ago
      Why is gravimetric density more important than volumetric density? That sounds counter intuitive to me.
      - owenversteeg 10y ago
        Places where gravimetric density is more important: - Electric vehicles - Aircraft - R/C - Anything that goes into space - Large scale energy storage (good energy density typically = less lithium used) - Generally: anything that moves Places where both are equally important: - Consumer electronics (you don't want an ultra slim 2lb phone, or a ultra thick featherweight phone) Places where volumetric density is more important: - Batteries in smartcards - Some medical devices - Certain flashlights, IoT devices You'll notice that there are a lot more things where people care more about gravimetric density. Also, the best Li-Ion cells for volumetric density that you can buy are rather inconvenient shapes; a favorite is the 18650, an 18mm diameter by 65mm long cylinder. Yes, the best 18650 technically has much better volumetric density than the iPhone batteries. But if you swapped the iPhone battery with an 18650 you'd have a hilarious looking semi-cylinder protruding from the back.
      - tekromancr 10y ago
        Because nobody seems to want a 4 pound cellphone battery.
- owenversteeg 10y ago
  > energy density is limited by the technology, not the will Spot on. Musk is a fascinating guy but he's not magic; energy density hasn't improved in 11 years with ridiculous amounts of cash thrown at it and I don't think Tesla will be the one to make a breakthrough. > As for the "gigafactory", it's Tesla trying to get into that closed market Tesla is actually partnered with Panasonic, which is one of the big battery makers and one of the three that actually make cutting-edge cells. Tesla's "plan" as far as I can tell is to make and sell batteries as cheap as they can, especially since the cells they are making right now aren't interesting in any other aspect than price.
  - blktiger 10y ago
    From what I can tell, Tesla has been focused on making their batteries _cheaper_ at the moment so they get the best deal possible on their batteries. They aren't really trying to make "better" batteries because they need to scale up their production first to meet Model 3 demand.
owenversteeg 10y ago
You're welcome! TL;DR They're changing the market dynamics but their cells are boring aside from being cheap and will probably stay that way for a while. So first of all, yes they will change the market dynamics; anyone selling as many batteries as they (plan to) do will change the market. Secondly, the gigafactory's cells aren't that interesting (right now) aside from being cheap. The cell lifetime is atrocious, between half to a quarter that of the market standard. The energy density is not great, around 220 Wh/kg for the best cells and 190 Wh/kg for the worse ones; this is slightly better than the cutting edge fifteen years ago. The power density they claim is unacceptable given what it does to the cell life. And since the cells are larger, they require new cooling systems. Musk is a fascinating guy, for sure, but he's just as human as the rest of us. An absolutely gargantuan amount of cash has been piled into battery research in the last 11 years, with zero appreciable gains in energy density. If the Gigafactory ever produces a high energy density cell, it'll almost certainly be because their partner Panasonic (which is one of the few battery companies on the cutting edge) made a breakthrough and licensed it to them. Finally, the battery market is a very strange thing: many makers of the 'good' cells won't sell to anyone except a few specific clients. These clients buy the cells (on paper) to make things like power tools or electric vehicles or battery packs. However, these clients vastly over-buy, and then sell off their excess stock to resellers. Anytime you buy a powerbank, or a loose 18650 cell for an e-cigarette, or a battery pack for an ebike, you're almost certainly going to end up with cells that have been resold at least twice. As such, the easiest way that Tesla could absolutely revolutionize the industry is by simply saying "hey, if your needed capacity is more than $25K per year, give us a call" and selling directly to businesses. They could even put up a quote on their website à la SpaceX. Unfortunately, I've got a feeling that if Tesla did that their partners at Panasonic would make heads roll, but you never know.
- Keyframe 10y ago
  That's interesting, to say the least. You can't just call Saft and order some cells then? They won't sell them to you?
  - owenversteeg 10y ago
    I'm not sure about Saft in particular; with how ridiculously bad their tech is I'm convinced they are a French government jobs program, and nobody I know has ever voluntarily used their cells (except years ago for non-rechargeable.) For reference, their highest energy density Li-Ion cell is 169 Wh/kg. I'm not sure how they managed to be that bad; I just literally taped a rock (14g) to the cheapest battery in my apartment (45.8g, the $2.49 NCR18650PF) and the combined energy density of my new Rock-Lithium-Ion Battery is 170 Wh/kg, better than that of Saft's highest energy density rechargeable cell. But yes; if you want newer battery technology direct from the manufacturer, you'll probably be flat-out ignored even if you're inquiring at a medium-large scale. The way to do it is to hunt around for semi-reputable resellers, who will usually give you what you want at an acceptable price.

by deepGem 10y ago

nolok 10y ago

Not parent, but whatever their plan is, energy density is limited by the technology, not the will. It's not like Panasonic could manufacture battery with twice the energy density if they wanted to, with some tech they're hiding in their back pocket. As for the "gigafactory", it's Tesla trying to get into that closed market, like parent said there are only a few big players and it's not very welcoming to new ones, Tesla's plan is to be so big that they can have a big supply to sell in bulk AND to also be (together with solar city I guess) one of their first big scale customer.

ryao 10y ago
I think you mean the electro-chemical cell. Batteries are just bundles of electrochemical cells (and 1 cell can be a bundle). I am far from an expert on this, but tighter packing of electrochemical cells could improve density.
- owenversteeg 10y ago
  > Batteries are just bundles of electrochemical cells (and 1 cell can be a bundle) Correct. The problem with packing cells tighter is heat production: a ridiculous amount of heat is released and the individual cells can get up to 80 degrees C / 176 F. (80C is not a "doomsday scenario"; most cells are rated to sit there running at 80C just fine.) When they're all next to each other, tightly packed in with no place for heat to go, you're screwed. The other reason is that volumetric density is usually not what people optimize for; gravimetric density is more useful most of the time, and in that case you don't really have any reason to use tighter packing.
  - ufo 10y ago
    Why is gravimetric density more important than volumetric density? That sounds counter intuitive to me.
    - owenversteeg 10y ago
      Places where gravimetric density is more important: - Electric vehicles - Aircraft - R/C - Anything that goes into space - Large scale energy storage (good energy density typically = less lithium used) - Generally: anything that moves Places where both are equally important: - Consumer electronics (you don't want an ultra slim 2lb phone, or a ultra thick featherweight phone) Places where volumetric density is more important: - Batteries in smartcards - Some medical devices - Certain flashlights, IoT devices You'll notice that there are a lot more things where people care more about gravimetric density. Also, the best Li-Ion cells for volumetric density that you can buy are rather inconvenient shapes; a favorite is the 18650, an 18mm diameter by 65mm long cylinder. Yes, the best 18650 technically has much better volumetric density than the iPhone batteries. But if you swapped the iPhone battery with an 18650 you'd have a hilarious looking semi-cylinder protruding from the back.
    - tekromancr 10y ago
      Because nobody seems to want a 4 pound cellphone battery.
owenversteeg 10y ago
> energy density is limited by the technology, not the will Spot on. Musk is a fascinating guy but he's not magic; energy density hasn't improved in 11 years with ridiculous amounts of cash thrown at it and I don't think Tesla will be the one to make a breakthrough. > As for the "gigafactory", it's Tesla trying to get into that closed market Tesla is actually partnered with Panasonic, which is one of the big battery makers and one of the three that actually make cutting-edge cells. Tesla's "plan" as far as I can tell is to make and sell batteries as cheap as they can, especially since the cells they are making right now aren't interesting in any other aspect than price.
- blktiger 10y ago
  From what I can tell, Tesla has been focused on making their batteries _cheaper_ at the moment so they get the best deal possible on their batteries. They aren't really trying to make "better" batteries because they need to scale up their production first to meet Model 3 demand.

owenversteeg 10y ago

You're welcome! TL;DR They're changing the market dynamics but their cells are boring aside from being cheap and will probably stay that way for a while. So first of all, yes they will change the market dynamics; anyone selling as many batteries as they (plan to) do will change the market. Secondly, the gigafactory's cells aren't that interesting (right now) aside from being cheap. The cell lifetime is atrocious, between half to a quarter that of the market standard. The energy density is not great, around 220 Wh/kg for the best cells and 190 Wh/kg for the worse ones; this is slightly better than the cutting edge fifteen years ago. The power density they claim is unacceptable given what it does to the cell life. And since the cells are larger, they require new cooling systems. Musk is a fascinating guy, for sure, but he's just as human as the rest of us. An absolutely gargantuan amount of cash has been piled into battery research in the last 11 years, with zero appreciable gains in energy density. If the Gigafactory ever produces a high energy density cell, it'll almost certainly be because their partner Panasonic (which is one of the few battery companies on the cutting edge) made a breakthrough and licensed it to them. Finally, the battery market is a very strange thing: many makers of the 'good' cells won't sell to anyone except a few specific clients. These clients buy the cells (on paper) to make things like power tools or electric vehicles or battery packs. However, these clients vastly over-buy, and then sell off their excess stock to resellers. Anytime you buy a powerbank, or a loose 18650 cell for an e-cigarette, or a battery pack for an ebike, you're almost certainly going to end up with cells that have been resold at least twice. As such, the easiest way that Tesla could absolutely revolutionize the industry is by simply saying "hey, if your needed capacity is more than $25K per year, give us a call" and selling directly to businesses. They could even put up a quote on their website à la SpaceX. Unfortunately, I've got a feeling that if Tesla did that their partners at Panasonic would make heads roll, but you never know.

Keyframe 10y ago
That's interesting, to say the least. You can't just call Saft and order some cells then? They won't sell them to you?
- owenversteeg 10y ago
  I'm not sure about Saft in particular; with how ridiculously bad their tech is I'm convinced they are a French government jobs program, and nobody I know has ever voluntarily used their cells (except years ago for non-rechargeable.) For reference, their highest energy density Li-Ion cell is 169 Wh/kg. I'm not sure how they managed to be that bad; I just literally taped a rock (14g) to the cheapest battery in my apartment (45.8g, the $2.49 NCR18650PF) and the combined energy density of my new Rock-Lithium-Ion Battery is 170 Wh/kg, better than that of Saft's highest energy density rechargeable cell. But yes; if you want newer battery technology direct from the manufacturer, you'll probably be flat-out ignored even if you're inquiring at a medium-large scale. The way to do it is to hunt around for semi-reputable resellers, who will usually give you what you want at an acceptable price.