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> On the other hand, I propose that there is no evidence the market will become more efficient continually, and the new normal is due to the rise of software ea

• dsacco 10y ago
  Sorry, I guess I wasn't clear. What I meant was that while finding alpha has indeed gotten harder over the past several decades, there are different candidate hypotheses to explore what will happen in the future. I interpreted your comment as a hypothesis that the market will continue to become more efficient as it essentially achieves weak EMH. However, I believe that you could consider the hyper-efficiency of recent times to be a natural byproduct of software and automation becoming ubiquitous. Information gets cheaper, faster and more accessible over time but I believe that there's a diminishing return in how much more efficient the market can get without another huge jump in technology. For example, HFT (specifically, the sort where you're actually thinking about the speed of light) is not categorically improving dramatically year after year anymore. The market is getting more efficient, sure, but it's getting more efficient very slowly, and would argue the rate of efficiency increases is decreasing. Without another categorical jump in technology (e.g. significant AI, quantum computing, etc) that dramatically improves data cleanliness or accessibility, I don't see the market getting significantly more efficient than it is now. And I don't agree that the market is yet at weak EMH.