5 ms·
For me, it feels like the article could have been a lot shorter. "San Francisco housing prices have gone so high that people can't afford to have kids here."
by mdasen 10y ago
For me, it feels like the article could have been a lot shorter. "San Francisco housing prices have gone so high that people can't afford to have kids here." It never really delved into many of the underlying incentives and such.
Yea, other locations might have some good draws like schools or a lack of fog. Yes, SF might have more LGBTQ folk. Neither of those are going to be a good explanation for the exodus.
Ultimately, I'm not sure cities see this as a problem that needs solving (regardless of what public officials might say to a reporter). I live in a similarly expensive city. Schools are expensive and I have no kids so that's a win for the city. I have high income and can bid up property values which is a win for the city. The city is building a lot of office space which pays very high property taxes while using comparatively few city resources (compared to residential). The abundance of jobs drives property values even higher which drives tax revenue to the city. Why would a city actually want kids?
I think a big driver of this in SF is that the software industry skews young. Software is a relatively new field unlike, say, medicine where you'll find a broader range of ages because computers have become a much bigger part of life more recently. Software can also be concentrated in certain cities in a way that doctors are going to be spread out a lot more. So, SF has an army of young, childless software engineers with more money than they know what to do with who might not have reached an age where they're thinking about saving willing to replace anyone looking to have kids who might move out.
So SF has no incentive to make it a better place for kids. If you want kids, leave and the city will replace you with a young childless person who can plunge their money into the city rather than asking for city services.
I think it's gone on too long to really course correct at this point. If you try to take steps to deal with housing prices, you're going to get a lot of opposition from your voters who have bought property in the city (and sunk their life savings into it). If I've paid $1M for a condo in SF, I don't want the city embarking on a big new plan to double the amount of housing. If anything, I want the opposite.
It's an unfortunate circumstance that wasn't addressed soon enough.
- intopieces 10y ago>Why would a city actually want kids? School districts want kids for the same reason start-ups want customers: it's hard to scale with smaller demand. Yesterday when I was in SF, I saw a sign hanging on the fence of a schoolyard: "SUPPORT YOUR SCHOOL - BUY SCHOOL LUNCHES!" Apparently, so few students were buying school lunches (and instead bringing their own) that it was becoming more expensive to provide it for the ones that do buy it. Children who grow up in a city go on to invest in that city. Children also require services that drive the local economy, from babysitting to clothing/toys/food. I know you don't like sitting next to a table full of kids at a restaurant. Me neither. But children are necessary components of a thriving community.
- nugget 10y agoWhat if SF has so much external demand that it doesn't need to generate any internal demand? As in, who cares whether anyone grows up in the city, because the job market is so strong that every available living space will be taken by someone from out of town? What happens in 30 years when there are almost no kids in the city and almost no adults are ''from'' San Francisco? Does it even matter? Maybe this is just a harbinger of things to come as the birth rate declines more broadly.
- intopieces 10y agoYou mean what if tech is forever? It's not forever. We thought it would be forever in '99 and it collapsed. The truth is, we don't know what the future will be like, but we can be almost certain that it will include children because there will always be some people who want children. So dismantling the support system for them (or letting it die slowly) is just asking for trouble, and is short sighted. Besides, you're underestimating the value of the children's economy. From birth to move out (let's say 18), many industries serve children, including quite a few that are startups.
- dsfyu404ed 10y agoThe fact that a boom might turn into a bust is an even better reason not to encourage people to start families in a particular location.
- CaliforniaKarl 10y agoThe problem with that logic is that it leads to gold-rush/mining cities which become ghost towns when their main driver goes away. I'm not saying that all of The city would disappear, but a flood of people leaving the city, driven out by a bust that will eventually happen, could leave large areas completely empty. That gives rise to higher crime, which increases stress on a police force that doesn't have as much taxpayer-funded support as it did before. You need people of all ages to keep a city thriving.
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- brd529 10y agoHouses in Marin and the Peninsula are just as expensive, only slightly larger, and they get lots of kids. It's all about the schools.
- johnny99 10y agoSchools in SF are a mixed bag, but many of them are very good. We have a 6 and 9 year old, who started in a parochial school. We switched to a well-regarded local public school, and getting a fantastic education. Edit: after reading some other comments, I should note, the lottery system is problematic. We got lucky and got a good school near us, and SFUSD stats show most people get one of their top few choices. But in a worst-case scenario, you have a long commute to a bad school--and you leave. The intention is good--to make good schools available to everyone, not just those who can afford the good neighborhoods. But until you land your kids in a school you're ok with, it's a big stressor.
- brd529 10y agoThe article mentioned Elizabeth Weise who I hadn't heard of, but just spent a good 30 minutes on her blog. It's excellent. Her "about" page summarizes why 1/3 of SF parents choose private schools. It's a pretty good proxy for why so many new parents move out before their kids are school age. She dug up another amazing stat: of all children born in San Francisco 1/4 will move out before kindergarten, 1/4 will go to private school and 1/2 will go to public school. The school district expects it's growth to be entirely from kids who live in public housing. http://elizabethweise.com/2014/03/21/1-in-3-san-francisco-school-aged-children-attends-private-school-a-look-into-san-franciscos-education-market/ http://elizabethweise.com/2014/03/21/1-in-3-san-francisco-sc...
- intrasight 10y agoThe lottery should be used for placing teachers in school not students. And it should be illegal for parents to support individual schools. With those two policies, all schools will be average - which is how it should be.
- geebee 10y ago
- mesh 10y agoIts not just housing prices, its also the school system, and the way children are placed in schools. From the article: -- Jean Covington, a San Francisco resident who works as a public defender in Contra Costa County, said she noticed a “pilgrimage” of her friends out of the city when children reached school age. When she decided to stick it out, she was confronted with what she described as a bewildering public school selection system governed by an algorithm that determines where children in the city are placed — sometimes miles from home. When her daughter turned 5, Ms. Covington applied to 14 public kindergartens, but her child ended up being placed in another. She chose a private school instead, along with the strain on the family budget that it entailed. -- In my personal case, we owned a house, but moved out of the city specifically because of the school system placement process.
- wahern 10y agoAt our local elementary, Lafayette, over 70% of kids are neighborhood kids, despite it being one of the better schools in the city (there's a wait list). I'm not looking forward to the stress of the lottery system. But the nearest private school to us is St. Thomas Apostle, with a yearly tuition of only $8k ($6k for parishioners). Catholic schools are crazy cheap in the city.[1] [1] To people without kids: that may look expensive, but hour-for-hour it's a heck of alot cheaper than daycare. Daycare in SF and most major cities is roughly $100/day, and it ain't that much cheaper anywhere else except with less formal arrangements.
- Spooky23 10y agoThat's a feature of urban life in general. Cities are forced into lottery systems to prevent segregation. So people with means self-segregate by moving away. In my case, (nowhere near SFO) my son was assigned to a school in the hood that is in the other side of my city. Just logistically it's a stupid policy -- during the afternoon it takes us almost 90 minutes to get there due to traffic. There's more craziness in these systems. More special needs kids end in urban districts, for example. In my region a school that recently completed an Olympic swimming pool outsourced several special needs programs to a pnother district 45 minutes away by bus. Parents who need those services migrate away.
- wahern 10y agoI live in San Francisco (Richmond District) and I have a kid. The city is _great_ for kids because there are so many kid-friendly facilities and programs. And the city has been relentlessly dumping tons of money into those facilities and programs. It might be one of the best places in the country to raise a kid, all things considered. (Which is to say that although my kid won't be able to wonder miles away from home at the age of 6, playing in the woods from dawn to dusk like I did, there are plenty of other advantages that more than make up for it.) Setting the aside the cost factor (which is huge, obviously, especially before they're old enough for the free daycare a la elementary school), the biggest issue is expectations. Most Americans' expectations of family life is based on a suburban ideal, whether we realize it or not. It's literally baked into our cultural DNA at this point. But those expectations won't work here, obviously. And so it's a doubly-whammy of cost and expectations. My neighborhood is heavily immigrant--Chinese, Russian, Vietnamese, and Irish--and most of the kids (there are alot!) are of those ethnicities, out of proportion to their share of the neighborhood population. It's not a coincidence[1]. For one thing, it's slightly cheaper for them because they can rent below market price through their network of families, friends, and co-workers. Secondly, their cultural expectations are different. Rather, in many cases their desires are better met by striving to stick in the neighborhood. At my local playground (3 blocks away, like most things--groceries, restaurants, schools, libraries, parks, etc) there are inevitably a few kids speaking Russian. Other than moving all the way to Sacramento, where could an immigrant or first generation Russian family move where they could still regularly speak Russian--at the playground, at church, at a restaurant, at school? The Chinese and Vietnamese have many more options in that respect. Alot of young people move to the city and think they've shed their suburban outlook. But when the kids come they return to what they know. Because raising kids is difficult and scary, and people don't understand how heavily they'll lean on the crutches of their ingrained cultural expectations and habits. Also, because it's damned expensive. [1] I mean, it's definitely not a coincidence which countries they're coming from. The Russian and Irish communities, for example, have been here for over a hundred years, and for various reasons I don't completely understand still sustain a steady stream of new immigrants. An Irish family (2 kids) just moved into a house on our block. And, FWIW, I'm pretty sure the husband works in the construction/contractor industry. It's certainly not all techies here; certainly not in my neighborhood, even though the median home price hovers around $1m, a tad less than the median for the city overall.
- bit_logic 10y agoThis has the same weakness as investing all money in a single stock. Great when it's doing well, disaster when it's not. Diversity is key for stability and sustainable growth. What will happen to SF when the tech bubble pops?
- keithpeter 10y ago"As San Francisco moves toward a one-industry town with soaring costs, the dearth of children is one more change that raises questions about its character." Quote from OA, my emphasis. One industry towns don't fare well when the industry gets disrupted or ceases to be relevant.
- deleted 10y ago[deleted]
- solatic 10y ago> Why would a city actually want kids? Long-term planning over short-term exploitation. Being a good place to raise children is crucial to keep people in the city long-term. When people decide to stay in the city long-term and put down roots, they develop a stronger emotional attachment to that place, and invest more of their personal energy into making it better. Investing solely in young people who plan to leave introduces a pump-and-dump mentality to the city's voters and thus into its municipality. It makes it politically untenable to invest in, say, large infrastructure projects which will cause much discomfort in the short term but are necessary in the long term. It's also necessary to combat discrimination, particularly ageism. If every "old" person who has kids moves away, then there are fewer "old" people in the city's labor market. The less visible "old" people are at work, the more that they are stereotyped and ultimately discriminated against. This reinforces a common work culture of valuing inexperienced workers over experienced workers and hurts the industry in the long term.
- Spooky23 10y agoThe problem is that kids are anchors and encourage a more diversified economy and workforce. From a long term perspective, your army of high income engineers are a liability in the long term for two reasons. One, you're going to get old and systematically pushed out. And two most of these folks are in cyclical industries... boom cycles are fun, busts not so much.
- nether 10y ago> For me, it feels like the article could have been a lot shorter This attitude is emblematic of why people don't want kids. Attention starved minds can't endure long, narrative type articles; the absolute last thing they could comprehend is the long haul effort of raising kids.