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My understanding of how withdrawal from the EU works is that a country's withdrawal occurs 2 years after they invoke the Article 50 process regardless of whethe

by abduhl 10y ago

My understanding of how withdrawal from the EU works is that a country's withdrawal occurs 2 years after they invoke the Article 50 process regardless of whether a final agreement has been made with the EU. Is this not correct? If it is correct, how can the ECB make this statement without it essentially being a threat of war? Edit - many below have noted that leaving the Eurozone and leaving the EU are distinctly different. I disagree. As I understand the EU charter, there is currently no way to leave the Eurozone without also leaving the Union. From Wikipedia, this is actually the exact position that Draghi espouses: "Regarding your question on withdrawing from the euro without leaving the EU, this possibility is not foreseen in the Treaties. The Treaty of Lisbon does not include this possibility, precisely because of the irreversibility of the move to the third stage of EMU for Member States." http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/other/20121107_morganti.en.pdf http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/other/20121107_morganti.en....

cperciva 10y ago
I'm reading "must" as meaning "or else we'll declare that you've defaulted on your loans". It's unlikely that Germany would invade Italy or Greece in order to seek loan repayments, but it's quite likely that such a declaration would be ruinous for their economies.
- abduhl 10y ago
  The economies of these countries have already been ruined by ECB policies - that is why they are (and have been) discussing leaving the EU. Britain is the first of many, in my opinion, and their economy was strong relative to others in the EU who are being screwed. It appears to me that the EU is finally learning what the USA learned long ago: economic policy is sovereignty. If you cannot control your own economy then you are subordinate to who can: the states are subordinate to the federal government just like the lesser EU countries (Greece, Italy) are subordinate to France and Germany.
  - jimnotgym 10y ago
    Leaving the Euro zone has nothing to do with leaving the EU. Italy and Greece have borrowed too much money from Germany and want a way out of it. At the moment the EU seem rather keen to stay together against Britain and against a hostile sounding US president
    - blibble 10y ago
      the accepted mechanism for leaving the Eurozone involves leaving the EU via Article 50 (same as the UK is doing) alternatives include unilateral withdrawal, a treaty change (impossible), or a council vote (difficult as they don't want it to happen) see https://acelg.blogactiv.eu/2013/03/22/how-to-exit-the-eurozone/ https://acelg.blogactiv.eu/2013/03/22/how-to-exit-the-eurozo... for a more detailed version
    - candiodari 10y ago
      You do realize the US was the driving force behind the creation and cohesion of the EU ? It seems to me that lack of US support might turn out to be very, very bad for cohesion in the EU rather than good.
      - pikzen 10y ago
        No. The money might have been from the US. But the creation of the CEE, then later the EU was born of the will of European leaders. Martin Schultz had listened to the US but they weren't the driving force.
  - dzhiurgis 10y ago
    > economic policy is sovereignty Wat? It's a free market. What are you on about?
    - jwdunne 10y ago
      EU member states and the US are mixed economies. EU countries are at various levels of command and market, dependent on nation (though policy exists to prevent direct public ownership in some areas). The US is generally considered "more free" than many if not all EU members. Economic policy exists and is implemented. Much argument in the mainstream lies on how much command or freedom is required but no major party argues for either extreme. At least not publicly (open NHS privatisation would be suicide for the Tory party for instance).
- douche 10y ago
  Not least because their militaries have so atrophied under the aegis of NATO that they would be scarce able to occupy a single province were a European war to break out.
  - candiodari 10y ago
    And since that is the real reason that the EU welfare state is possible, they can't actually create an army without creating a revolution.
deleted 10y ago
[deleted]
TazeTSchnitzel 10y ago
EU withdrawal isn't necessarily the question here, however, rather Eurozone withdrawal.
MistahKoala 10y ago
You're confusing two different things: the EU and the Eurozone. The Eurozone is simply the currency union of several European states. The EU is the political union. Many, but not all, EU states are also members of the Eurozone. The implementation of Article 50 and the two-year negotiation and withdrawal period pertain to the EU and not the Eurozone, of which the UK is not part. The two-year period can be extended up to a year by unanimous agreement.
- abduhl 10y ago
  As far as I am aware, there is currently no way to leave the Eurozone without also leaving the EU.
  - jimnotgym 10y ago
    As noted below there is currently no mechanism, but that doesn't mean there wouldn't be one agreed if a country actually wanted to leave
    - abduhl 10y ago
      I agree completely. Of course, rather than rewrite the EU treaties or make exceptions for countries that want to leave the Eurozone, the more likely thing to happen will be the same thing that happened in the USA when a couple countries (see: states) wanted to leave the Union back in the 1800s.
  - dogma1138 10y ago
    Well you can simply fail the requirements to be in he Euro zone :)

by abduhl 10y ago

cperciva 10y ago

I'm reading "must" as meaning "or else we'll declare that you've defaulted on your loans". It's unlikely that Germany would invade Italy or Greece in order to seek loan repayments, but it's quite likely that such a declaration would be ruinous for their economies.

abduhl 10y ago
The economies of these countries have already been ruined by ECB policies - that is why they are (and have been) discussing leaving the EU. Britain is the first of many, in my opinion, and their economy was strong relative to others in the EU who are being screwed. It appears to me that the EU is finally learning what the USA learned long ago: economic policy is sovereignty. If you cannot control your own economy then you are subordinate to who can: the states are subordinate to the federal government just like the lesser EU countries (Greece, Italy) are subordinate to France and Germany.
- jimnotgym 10y ago
  Leaving the Euro zone has nothing to do with leaving the EU. Italy and Greece have borrowed too much money from Germany and want a way out of it. At the moment the EU seem rather keen to stay together against Britain and against a hostile sounding US president
  - blibble 10y ago
    the accepted mechanism for leaving the Eurozone involves leaving the EU via Article 50 (same as the UK is doing) alternatives include unilateral withdrawal, a treaty change (impossible), or a council vote (difficult as they don't want it to happen) see https://acelg.blogactiv.eu/2013/03/22/how-to-exit-the-eurozone/ https://acelg.blogactiv.eu/2013/03/22/how-to-exit-the-eurozo... for a more detailed version
  - candiodari 10y ago
    You do realize the US was the driving force behind the creation and cohesion of the EU ? It seems to me that lack of US support might turn out to be very, very bad for cohesion in the EU rather than good.
    - pikzen 10y ago
      No. The money might have been from the US. But the creation of the CEE, then later the EU was born of the will of European leaders. Martin Schultz had listened to the US but they weren't the driving force.
- dzhiurgis 10y ago
  > economic policy is sovereignty Wat? It's a free market. What are you on about?
  - jwdunne 10y ago
    EU member states and the US are mixed economies. EU countries are at various levels of command and market, dependent on nation (though policy exists to prevent direct public ownership in some areas). The US is generally considered "more free" than many if not all EU members. Economic policy exists and is implemented. Much argument in the mainstream lies on how much command or freedom is required but no major party argues for either extreme. At least not publicly (open NHS privatisation would be suicide for the Tory party for instance).
douche 10y ago
Not least because their militaries have so atrophied under the aegis of NATO that they would be scarce able to occupy a single province were a European war to break out.
- candiodari 10y ago
  And since that is the real reason that the EU welfare state is possible, they can't actually create an army without creating a revolution.

deleted 10y ago

[deleted]

TazeTSchnitzel 10y ago

EU withdrawal isn't necessarily the question here, however, rather Eurozone withdrawal.

MistahKoala 10y ago

You're confusing two different things: the EU and the Eurozone. The Eurozone is simply the currency union of several European states. The EU is the political union. Many, but not all, EU states are also members of the Eurozone. The implementation of Article 50 and the two-year negotiation and withdrawal period pertain to the EU and not the Eurozone, of which the UK is not part. The two-year period can be extended up to a year by unanimous agreement.

abduhl 10y ago
As far as I am aware, there is currently no way to leave the Eurozone without also leaving the EU.
- jimnotgym 10y ago
  As noted below there is currently no mechanism, but that doesn't mean there wouldn't be one agreed if a country actually wanted to leave
  - abduhl 10y ago
    I agree completely. Of course, rather than rewrite the EU treaties or make exceptions for countries that want to leave the Eurozone, the more likely thing to happen will be the same thing that happened in the USA when a couple countries (see: states) wanted to leave the Union back in the 1800s.
- dogma1138 10y ago
  Well you can simply fail the requirements to be in he Euro zone :)