3 ms·

People have been bullshitting us for centuries that market investing is a game of skill. If it really comes down to luck then it is gambling, and it should be

by leed25d 10y ago

People have been bullshitting us for centuries that market investing is a game of skill. If it really comes down to luck then it is gambling, and it should be treated (legally) as such.

chki 10y ago
But even if investing is about luck it is still not comparable. Investing was originally (well ... kind of.. ) people betting on which ships would come back from the new world. And it were only those bets that made the game possible, established a new market and caused enormous changes in the world. Investing is not people playing some made up game - but people playing a heavily complicated game which is also known as: the real world. This makes it fundamentally different. Even if it might be very much based on luck, I would bet on the ship with the more experienced sailor/better crew etc. and would not call that gambling.
charlesdm 10y ago
Right. And because of luck you always have the same poker players winning at tournaments, taking home the cash? I personally don't believe investing in the market is gambling, but even if it were, that doesn't necessarily mean you can't consistently make money from it. Some of it is luck, some of it skill. Investing in general is about probability. An example: I am working on a deal right now. If it goes through I put $100k at risk by investing in an asset. Absolute worst case I can resell that asset for $50k, but I can probably sell it on for $100k. Best case if everything pans out I make $3m. The chance of that happening is probably around 50%. Those are odds I like. Lots of upside, almost no downside. Some publicly traded stocks are like that.
- drumdance 10y ago
  Well, some argue that poker is a game of skill. Bluffing, looking for tells etc. Everything I've read is that when you get to the championship level, everyone already is good at understanding probabilities. It's psychology that makes the difference. In fact, just last night I talked to a woman who does really well at poker because she randomly pretends to be a "dumb broad" on some hands.
- hospes 10y ago
  Making 30x on investment, with the risk of losing half of it in worst case scenario, sounds like an incredibly good deal. >> Some publicly traded stocks are like that. Can you please give an example?

by leed25d 10y ago

People have been bullshitting us for centuries that market investing is a game of skill. If it really comes down to luck then it is gambling, and it should be treated (legally) as such.

chki 10y ago

But even if investing is about luck it is still not comparable. Investing was originally (well ... kind of.. ) people betting on which ships would come back from the new world. And it were only those bets that made the game possible, established a new market and caused enormous changes in the world. Investing is not people playing some made up game - but people playing a heavily complicated game which is also known as: the real world. This makes it fundamentally different. Even if it might be very much based on luck, I would bet on the ship with the more experienced sailor/better crew etc. and would not call that gambling.

charlesdm 10y ago

Right. And because of luck you always have the same poker players winning at tournaments, taking home the cash? I personally don't believe investing in the market is gambling, but even if it were, that doesn't necessarily mean you can't consistently make money from it. Some of it is luck, some of it skill. Investing in general is about probability. An example: I am working on a deal right now. If it goes through I put $100k at risk by investing in an asset. Absolute worst case I can resell that asset for $50k, but I can probably sell it on for $100k. Best case if everything pans out I make $3m. The chance of that happening is probably around 50%. Those are odds I like. Lots of upside, almost no downside. Some publicly traded stocks are like that.

drumdance 10y ago
Well, some argue that poker is a game of skill. Bluffing, looking for tells etc. Everything I've read is that when you get to the championship level, everyone already is good at understanding probabilities. It's psychology that makes the difference. In fact, just last night I talked to a woman who does really well at poker because she randomly pretends to be a "dumb broad" on some hands.
hospes 10y ago
Making 30x on investment, with the risk of losing half of it in worst case scenario, sounds like an incredibly good deal. >> Some publicly traded stocks are like that. Can you please give an example?