This is well covered by Charles Ellis: The stock market has changed dramatically since the 70s, when most money was invested with almost no information. Getting

This is well covered by Charles Ellis: The stock market has changed dramatically since the 70s, when most money was invested with almost no information. Getting key information well ahead of the market was relatively easy. A lot of people made a lot of money then, until the amount of 'smart' money rapidly increased. It's still possible to get better returns than average on the market: After all, most of congress does this. But the one way to do it is precisely like congress does, by having information that the market is unaware of. This is what make people move money into venture capital: It's a way to invest into things most of the market is unaware of, and whee the number of players is small enough that it's still possible to get privileged information. Buffet's current plan is only doable because he has access to more information, and has such a gigantic bundle of money that any effort to get an edge will be multiplies by investment size. Where does the wealth of the richest people in the world come from? Tremendously risky bets, going heavily into a single, extremely successful venture that they had special access to. But what makes their ventures win, vs those of second players that did badly in the same industry? Non replicable things, distributed in a way you could call luck.