>>Actually, the probability of getting a head 40 times is 1/2^40, which is 1 in about 1.1 trillion I bet that the odds of beating the market 40 times are even

>>Actually, the probability of getting a head 40 times is 1/2^40, which is 1 in about 1.1 trillion I bet that the odds of beating the market 40 times are even worse since it is not a simple binary choice. The better analogy would be to choose the correct face of a 6 sided dice 40 times in a row, or even better a 100 sided dice. Calculate the odds for that! (I'm too lazy to do it myself)