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>>You just confirmed what keeps people from understanding this truth: confirmation bias. It seems a bit hard to believe that this is just confirmation bias. Wh
by felipemnoa 10y ago
>>You just confirmed what keeps people from understanding this truth: confirmation bias.
It seems a bit hard to believe that this is just confirmation bias. What are the odds that he guesses correctly almost 40 times in a row? It is possible but not likely. If he is not really as good as we think he is then you could also say that he is doing insider trading and he just hasn't been caught.
Honestly I don't buy the theory that he is just extremely lucky.
- cafebabbe 10y agoPeople winning the lottery (what is it already? 1 chance in 300 millions ?) must be very good at lottery.
- felipemnoa 10y agoNow win it 40 times in a row.
- cafebabbe 10y agoNot comparable - beating the market one year is quite probable.
- dsacco 10y agoYour analogy is a poor comparison. Winning the lottery is not like picking stocks because it's almost perfectly efficient. No player in a lottery has any insight about what the winning numbers will be that, let alone an insight that other players don't have. It's an absolute black box. I know what you're thinking. "The stock market is a random walk! Efficient market hypothesis!" But the market is not a black box. You can legally gain insight that other participants don't have and use that insight to profit. Other people have done the math in this thread. The human population would need to be orders of magnitude larger than it is now, and every human would need to be an active, failing market participant, in order for the successful traders we see being the result of chance.
- pedrosorio 10y agoDid you not read the other comments in this thread talking about the numbers? The probability of repeatedly beating the market the way Buffett has done it is several orders of magnitude lower than the probability of winning the lottery. That's the point.