Actually even that isn't the best question. The best question is what's the expected reward from choosing A. Consider the scenario of 10% chance B > A, 90% ch

Actually even that isn't the best question. The best question is what's the expected reward from choosing A. Consider the scenario of 10% chance B > A, 90% chance they are equal. To me that sounds like a winning bet. In contrast, 70% chance B is a lot better than A, 30% chance B is a lot worse than A sounds like a scary bet. I'll wait and gather more info. Proper decision theory is based on a loss function which incorporates the magnitude of gains/losses rather than just their existence. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loss_function https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loss_function